10 Candidates for the 2016 Hall of Fame

On Wednesday afternoon, my favorite moment of the baseball off-season will occur: the announcement of the Class of 2016, the new inductees into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. After two terrific classes of Hall of Famers (seven deserving players elected in the past two years), this year’s class will likely be smaller, possibly as small as one. With only one obvious new candidate on the ballot (Ken Griffey Jr.) the opportunity is there for some of the others, squeezed out in recent years by the 10-vote limit, to see a significant uptick in their support.

In this piece, I’ll share the names of the ten players that I would be voting for if I had the privilege of casting a ballot along with the approximately 450 eligible voters for the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).

You’ll notice that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are not on my list. It’s my personal belief that they were so, so, so great as players that they should be in Cooperstown in spite of their alleged sins of using Performance Enhancing Drugs (PED’s). However, nearly two-thirds of the baseball writers disagree and not enough will change their minds so, to me, it’s a wasted vote to cast a ballot for either. I explained my reasoning in detail in this previous post, which you can link to here.

Although the Hall of Fame ballots don’t ask the voters to list their choices in order, I’ll do mine in the order that I would vote if limited to one, or four, or seven, etc.

1. KEN GRIFFEY JR. (first year on ballot)

ign.com

• 630 home runs (6th most in Major League Baseball history)
• 1,836 runs batted in (15th most ever)
• .284 career AVG, .370 OBP, .538 SLG (.907 OPS)
• 1997 AL MVP (.304 AVG, 56 HR, 147 RBI)
• 7 times in Top 10 in AL MVP voting
• 13-time All-Star
• 10 Gold Gloves (consecutive 1990-1999)
• 41 double plays as a center fielder (7th most ever)
• 83.6 career Wins Above Replacement (WAR)  (5th best ever for center fielders)

The man known as “The Kid,” Ken Griffey Jr., is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Fame player. His 630 career home runs (6th best all-time) was accomplished without any taint from performance enhancing drugs. The former #1 overall pick in the draft and son of a quality major leaguer of the same name, Junior looked like a future Hall of Famer from the moment he debuted with the Seattle Mariners in 1989. They called him The Kid because of the passion and energy he brought to the field. I will never forget the image of him smiling with glee after going first-to-home on Edgar Martinez’ RBI double in the bottom of the 11th of Game 5 the 1995 LDS against the Yankees. There will probably be a few writers who don’t vote for him, feeling that being the first unanimous Hall of Famer should be reserved for somebody else, but Junior will get nearly 100% and will be the star of the induction ceremony this August.

Prediction: 98% of the vote.

2. MIKE PIAZZA (4th year on ballot, received 70% of the vote in 2015)

cbsports.com

• 427 home runs (most ever for a catcher)
• 1,335 RBI (4th best for catchers: Berra, Simmons, Bench)
• .308 career AVG, .377 OBP, .545 SLG, .922 OPS
• 142 career OPS+ (OPS adjusted for park effects and the era played) (best ever for a catcher, by 13 points)
• 7 times Top 10 in NL MVP voting
• 12-time All-Star
• 1993 NL Rookie of the Year
• 59.4 career WAR (6th best for catchers)

Simply put, Mike Piazza is the best-hitting catcher in the history of Major League Baseball. He should be in the Hall of Fame for that reason. Period. It was an amazing journey for a player who was not taken until the 62nd round of the 1992 amateur draft, by the Los Angeles Dodgers, mostly as a favor by Dodgers manager Tommy Lasorda to a friend. It took a couple of years for Piazza to find his power bat, but find it he did, clubbing 35 home runs in his rookie season in L.A.

There are two knocks against Piazza as a Hall of Famer. The first is the justifiable assertion that he was a poor defensive catcher. This is true. On 10 different seasons, Piazza led the league in most stolen bases allowed. Still, it’s enormously valuable to provide your team the kind of offense he delivered at a key defensive position.

I asked myself the question: was his offensive production good enough to get into the Hall of Fame had he been a first baseman? Courtesy of the indispensable Baseball Reference, I ran the numbers for Piazza from his first ten seasons in the majors and put them up against the top first basemen in the league (those who had at least 3,000 plate appearances over that 10 year period).

I looked at six statistics: the traditional statistics HR, RBI and batting average and three advanced metrics: OPS+ (on base% plus slugging% adjusted for ballpark effects), Runs Created (the advanced all purpose runs producing formula created by Bill James), and WAR Runs Batting (this is the batting component of Wins Above Replacement). I am not adding overall WAR here because it gives Piazza a positional advantage for being a catcher. The purpose here is whether his offensive numbers are still Cooperstown-worthy had he occupied a different position on the diamond.

Mike Piazza
 1993-2002
Rank
among 1B & C (min 3000 PA)



Home Runs
346
4th
Palmeiro McGwire Bagwell


Runs Batted In
1066
3rd
Palmeiro Bagwell


Batting Average
.322
2nd
Todd Helton


OPS+
155
5th
McGwire Thomas Bagwell Thome


Runs Created
1095
5th
Bagwell Palmeiro Thomas Thome


WAR Runs Batting
388.9
3rd
Bagwell Thomas

Pretty good company, don’t you think? The names populating more than one of these leader boards include Thomas (already in the Hall), PED-linked McGwire and Palmeiro, and Thome (owner of 612 career home runs and not eligible for voting until 2018). The only other name here is Helton’s and he compiled his lofty batting average with the benefit of the Mile High air in Denver.

The conclusion: during his first 10 years, Mike Piazza’s numbers would have been Hall of Fame worthy even if he had played the less significant defensive position of first base. Not only were these numbers right up there with the best first basemen in the game but his career numbers would have almost certainly been much higher had he not been a catcher. Squatting behind the plate for nine innings, getting nicked by foul balls, getting bowled over at home plate are all things that take a cumulative wear and tear on a player’s body which is why most catcher’s are functionally finished as productive players in their early 30’s. Piazza took a lot of pride in being a catcher but he probably would have prolonged his career by moving off the dish. He spent his last campaign (at age 38) as a part-time DH for the Oakland A’s but by then his body had had enough; he was finished as a quality major leaguer.

While McGwire and Palmeiro have been, in a manner of speaking, partners in PED crime, Piazza and Bagwell (also on this current ballot) have been partners in PED whispers. Neither player has ever been linked to steroids or any other PED’s but many writers are still suspicious, feeling that something was amiss. Were it not for these “whispers” both men would likely already have delivered an acceptance speech and had a bust unveiled in Cooperstown. The PED suspicions are of course the second knock against Piazza.

Some say Piazza had too much back acne. Some say he hit the ball too darn hard. I don’t buy it. I know this isn’t a court of law and that the Hall of Fame is an honor and not a privilege but we’ve got to start believing in the American notion of being innocent until proven guilty. It’s been nearly a decade since these guys have retired; there are no links to steroids coming. You can continue to deny them forever their rightful place in the pantheon of the sport based on undocumented suspicions or recognize them for their deeds on the diamond. I can flat out guarantee you that there are already players in the Hall who used PED’s (particularly amphetamines). We don’t know who we are on we probably never will. Let’s get over it.

Fortunately, it does seem that most of the writers are in agreement. Piazza garnered 70% of the vote last year and that almost always means the honor of induction the following year. The last player who didn’t make it into Cooperstown on the year after falling just short with 70% was Jim Bunning, in 1988 (the future Kentucky Senator would eventually make it in through the Veterans’ Committee).

Prediction: Piazza squeaks in with 76% of the vote, setting up a trip for thousands of Mets fans to upstate New York next summer.

3. TIM RAINES (9th year on ballot, received 55% of the vote in 2015)

nbcsports.com

• 808 career stolen bases (5th all time) 
• 6 straight years with 70 or more stolen bases
• 85% career SB% (best ever for min 400 attempts)
• .294 career AVG, .385 OBP, .425 SLG, .810 OPS
• 123 career OPS+ (4th best for any player with 500+ SB) (behind Bonds, Morgan, Henderson)
• 7-time All-Star
• 69.1 career WAR (8th best all-time for left fielders)

Tim Raines made two big mistakes in his life. The first is that he used cocaine early in his career, which forever tarnished his image and might even play a role in why he isn’t already in the Hall of Fame already. His second mistake was to begin his career in 1979, the same year as another young player hit the big leagues, a guy named Rickey Henderson. Raines played Haydn to Rickey’s Mozart. If you know who Joseph Haydn was, you get it. If you’ve never heard of Haydn, that’s the point too.

This player, known as “Rock,” was a spectacular, dynamic player, the 2nd best leadoff hitter in the history of baseball. 2nd best. To Rickey Henderson.

Raines was one of the greatest base runners ever but he is running out of time to make it to the Hall of Fame. This is his 9th year on the ballot and he needs a big jump from 55% of the vote to the needed 75% in two years to get his day in Cooperstown. There is a big, big push in the sabermetric community to get Raines into the Hall so he’s got a decent shot, probably not this year, but maybe next.

Rock’s greatest credential is his 85% career stolen base percentage. In modern analytics we’ve learned that, for stolen bases to be worthwhile, the runner needs to succeed at least 73.5% of the time or better. Every situation is different of course: the best time to steal 2nd base is with two outs to put yourself into scoring position. The best time to steal 3rd base is with one out to put yourself in a position to score on a sacrifice fly.

Anyway, for most of the history of baseball nobody knew what these run expectancy probabilities were: the mass accumulation of stolen bases was interpreted as a good thing that led to runs and that, as long as you made it a little more than half of the time, you were helping the team. When Tim Raines was stealing his 808 bases, most people didn’t appreciate the significance of his success rate. We can’t compare Rock’s base-stealing prowess to early greats like Ty Cobb because Caught Stealing records are incomplete prior to 1951. Still, there are 45 Hall of Fame position players who debuted in ’51 or later and not one of them owns a stolen base success rate equal to Raines’.

So, if it’s a demonstrable fact that Tim Raines was, at the very least, the 2nd most successful stolen base artist in the last 65 years, why hasn’t Raines caught on with nearly half of the voting body of the BBWAA?

First of all, in his best years he played in Montreal. Sorry. Boring. Not in the USA. Nobody cares. Not really that nobody cared but playing in Canada didn’t help. Two of Raines’ teammates (Andre Dawson and Gary Carter) overcame the Canada factor but they also benefited by producing Hall of Fame caliber seasons later in their careers in the big media markets of Chicago and New York.

Raines essentially had three careers: the first third of his career (1981-1990), where he was one of the top 10 players in the game. By WAR, he was the 7th best during that time, behind 5 Hall of Famers plus Alan Trammell (in his last year on the ballot this year) and ahead of many others (including his Expos teammate Dawson).

Tim Raines
 1981-1990
Rank
among all players (min 5000 PA)



Stolen Bases
627
2nd
Henderson


Stolen Base%
85%
1st


Runs
926
3rd
Henderson Dwight Evans Yount


Hits
1597
4th
Boggs Yount Murray


Batting Average
.302
5th
Boggs Gwynn Brett P. Guerrero


On-Base%
.391
3rd
Boggs Henderson


OPS+
132
9th
3rd among LF (Henderson Bonds)


Runs Created
1030
5th
Boggs Henderson Murray D. Evans


Overall WAR
48.4
7th
Henderson Boggs Ripken Trammell Ozzie Yount


WAR Runs Base Running
84.1
2nd
Henderson

So you can see that although Raines and Henderson were human incarnations of the Pony Express, neither one were one-trick ponies. They each were excellent hitters: they hit with extra base power and masterful at earning the free pass. Simply put: they were the first and second best base runners in the modern history of the game but they were also complete players. Henderson was just bigger and badder but both were Hall of Fame caliber.

Anyway, in the second act of Raines’ career (from 1991 to 1995, with the Chicago White Sox) he was still a productive everyday player but not the superstar that he was in his youth.

In his third career (1996-2002, with 5 different teams) he was a platoon or bench player. Raines won two World Series rings with the New York Yankees in 1996 and 1998 but he was not even one of the 15 best players on those teams (and he was only 36 years old in ’96).

So, it is understandable that a player who really didn’t have one Hall of Fame caliber season in the final 12 seasons of his career has not been voted into Cooperstown. He spent the first eight of those final years in Chicago and New York, home to media coverage and lots of baseball writers who vote for the Hall inductees. I think it’s natural that some (or many) of these writers, who never saw Raines in his prime on an everyday basis, would have a gut feeling that he didn’t make the cut.

This is an important point: for many Hall of Fame players, “hanging around” at the end of their career as a part-time or average player can accrue significant benefits: you can hit your 500th home run, get your 3,000th hit, or win your 300th game. Tim Raines is currently 5th on the all-time stolen base list (behind Henderson, Lou Brock, the 19th century’s Billy Hamilton and Ty Cobb). After the 1994 season, Tim Raines was 5th on the all-time stolen base list. So for the last eight years of his career, his 44 steals didn’t move him up on the all-time list at all. No publicity. No big media moment that a milestone accomplishment brings. Lou Brock was not as good a baseball player as Rock Raines. He wasn’t the same caliber player, but he had the good sense to steal 118 bases in his age 35 season and to finish his career as the all-time stolen base champion (later passed only by Rickey).

Here are the numbers: Lou Brock vs. Tim Raines:

Wordpress Table Plugin

Lou Brock (known as “The Franchise” in St. Louis) had 881 more career plate appearances than Rock Raines. This is because (to his credit) he was a much more productive player in his 30’s than was Raines. He had 3,023 career hits (a Cooperstown benchmark); Raines had only 2,605. But Raines got to first base via the walk almost twice as often; he reached base more than Brock did, despite 418 fewer hits! Add in the fact that Raines’ stolen base success rate was 10 percentage points better (85% to 75%) and it’s really not close between these two.

This is not to say that Brock shouldn’t be a Hall of Famer. As Bob Costas said a year ago, if you were playing a game of Strat-O-Matic baseball and had to pick Brock or Raines, you would choose Raines. But Brock did get 3,000 hits; he did set the all-time single season and all-time stolen base record (until broken by Henderson). And he was also an integral part of two World Series Championships with the Cardinals; Raines also won two titles but was mostly a bystander and the Yankees would have won both times without him. This is the Hall of Fame, and Brock absolutely deserves his.

My point here is that Rock Raines deserves his fame too.

Prediction: 66% of the vote and squeaks across the finish line and into Cooperstown in 2017.

4. CURT SCHILLING (4th year on ballot, received 39% of the vote in 2015)

monstah.mash.com

• 216 wins, 146 losses (.597 winning %)
• Won 20 or more games 3 times
• 3.46 ERA, 1.137 WHIP (walks + hits per inning)
• 127 career park-adjusted ERA+
• 3,116 strikeouts
• 4.38 K/BB ratio (best in MLB history)
• Member of 3 World Series Champion teams
• 11-2 with 2.23 ERA in 19 post-season starts
• 2nd in Cy Young Award voting three times
• 6-time All-Star
• 80.7 career pitching WAR (16th best for all pitchers since World War II)

I absolutely, positively am baffled that Curt Schilling is not already in the Hall of Fame and stupefied that he hasn’t even cracked 40% on the ballot in his first three tries. OK, I actually do understand why, I just passionately disagree with the naysayers. Here are the negatives and my rebuttals:

1. Schilling only had 216 career wins. It’s true, that’s not a lot for a Hall of Fame pitcher. Schilling was a middle reliever early in his career, not finding his groove as a starter until he was 25 years old, when he went 14-11 with a 2.35 ERA for the Philadelphia Phillies. He was also injury-plagued late in his 20’s so his 436 career games started is low. Still, there are 17 starting pitchers in the Hall with fewer career victories so, while this isn’t a selling point, it’s certainly should not disqualify.
2. His career 3.46 ERA is high. Well, not as high as it seems. Schilling pitched during the most prolific offensive era baseball has seen since before the Second World War. His park-and-era-adjusted ERA+ (127, or 27% above average) is much more impressive. That’s the same ERA+ as the marks posted by Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson and better than the career ERA+ for luminaries like Jim Palmer, Bob Feller, Don Drysdale, Steve Carlton, and many others. In fact, it’s better than a whopping 40 starting pitchers already in Cooperstown.
3. He never won a Cy Young Award. Well, sorry folks, no, he didn’t. Pardon him for finishing 2nd twice to his teammate on the Arizona Diamondbacks, Randy Johnson, who was in the midst of a ridiculous run of four straight awards.

When evaluating the Hall of Fame resume of a player or a pitcher, I try not to focus on Wins Above Replacement because I believe a Hall of Famer should be elected based on tangible accomplishments that the average fan can understand and appreciate. If a player has an uncommonly high (or low) WAR, that to me is a signal of further investigation into the reasons why that might justify a yes or no vote on a plaque in Cooperstown. Still, there are only two other pitchers in the history of baseball with a WAR higher than Schilling’s 80.7 who are not in the Hall of Fame. One is Clemens, who isn’t in the Hall for obvious reasons. The other is Mike Mussina who, like Schill, is on this year’s ballot. That deserves a really long look.

For pitchers, WAR is a little more difficult to grasp than for batters. I’m not going to get into the weeds here but Schilling’s best-ever strikeout-to-walk ratio plays heavily to his favor in the WAR calculation. Speaking of which, I would argue that being the best in baseball history at something as important and basic of striking out lots of batters out and walking virtually none deserves a spot on a bust in Cooperstown.

For me, the biggest (by far) reason to put Curt Schilling into the Hall of Fame is his superlative post-season record. He was an integral part of three championship teams and a critical part of another team that won the pennant but lost the World Series (the 1993 Phillies). For those who have forgotten, let me recap his October exploits.

• Won Games 1 and 5 of the 1993 NLCS against the Atlanta Braves, propelling the Phillies to the Fall Classic.
• The Phils blew a 6-run lead in Game 4 of the World Series and suffered an excruciating 15-14 loss. The bullpen was bloodied and battered and Philadelphia was facing elimination in Game 5. Schilling took the hill and gutted out a complete game, 147-pitch shutout for a 2-0 victory. Although his team would lose Game 6 to the Joe Carter walk-off, Schilling’s big-game rep was established.
• In the 2001 NLDS against St. Louis, he pitched two complete games, with a 1-0 shutout in Game 1 and a 2-1 victory in the win-or-go-home all Game 5.
• He started Games 1, 4, and 7 of the World Series against the three-time defending champion New York Yankees and tossed 21.1 innings of 4-run ball. He didn’t win the decisive Game 7 but kept them in the game long enough to get the walk-off victory in the bottom of the 9th.
• Facing elimination in the famous “bloody sock” game, the injured Schilling tossed 7 innings of one-run ball in Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS, a crucial step in the Boston Red Sox’ historic comeback from being down three games to none to their bitter rivals the Yankees. Schilling was an integral part of the team that “broke the curse.”
• Although he played a lesser role in the Sox’ second title in 2007, he did pitch 7 innings of shutout baseball in the clinching Game 3 of the ALDS.

All told, Schilling toed the rubber five times in which his team needed to win or watch their season end: his team won all five games. To me, his eleven October wins are worth 60 or 70 regular season wins. Some players are “bystanders” as their teams win championships. For two of Schilling’s three rings, his teams would absolutely not have won without him. All told, he is (in my opinion) the most valuable starting pitcher in the LCS era (post 1969), although Madison Bumgarner is getting really close.

There’s one other factor that may impact Schilling’s Hall of Fame support this year. In August of this past year, ESPN suspended Schilling (one of their Sunday Night Baseball analysts) because of a controversial and politically incorrect Tweet he sent comparing Muslims to Nazis.

As of Tuesday morning, 171 writers ballots have been released publicly and reported on the excellent Hall of Fame Tracker by Ryan Tibbs and eight of them who voted for Schilling last year decided not to vote for him this time. So, think about this: a year ago Schilling was on the same ballot as starting pitchers Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz and these eight writers found room on their ballots for Schilling. But not this year, when there is only one other viable starting pitcher candidate on the ballot (Mike Mussina).

Hmmm, seems fishy to me. Please let’s not select Hall of Fame candidates based on their political views.

Prediction: a disappointing 48% of the vote, a bit of an uptick from 39% but still far, far short of the 75% needed.

5. JEFF BAGWELL (6th year on ballot, received 56% of the vote in 2015)

thebiglead.com

• 449 home runs
• 1,529 runs batted in
• .297 career AVG, .408 OBP, .540 SLG, .948 OPS
• 149 career OPS+
• 1994 N.L. MVP (39 HR, 116 RBI, .368 AVG, 1.201 OPS)
• 6 times in top 10 of NL MVP voting
• 8 seasons with at least 30 HR & 100 RBI
• Only first baseman in history with 400 HR and 200 SB
• 1991 NL rookie of the year
• 79.6 career WAR (6th best all-time for first basemen)

Although he debuted three years later, Jeff Bagwell will always be linked to his longtime teammate on the Houston Astros, newly inducted Hall of Famer Craig Biggio. The Killer B’s were mainstays in Space City, playing together in the Astrodome and then Minute Maid Park for 15 seasons.

In the Piazza comment, I noted how he stacked up against the best first basemen in baseball for a 10-year period. In a similar chart below, I ran the numbers for ALL players from 1994-2003 (adding WAR, runs scored and stolen bases), which encompasses Baggy’s peak:

Jeff Bagwell
 1994-2003
Rank
among all players (min 3000 PA)



Home Runs
366
5th
Sosa Bonds Palmeiro Thome


Runs Batted In
1155
3rd
Sosa Palmeiro


Runs Scored
1160
1st


Stolen Bases
166
19th
Most for 1st Basemen


OPS+
156
6th
Bonds McGwire Sheffield M. Ramirez E. Martinez


Runs Created
1367
2nd
Bonds


Overall WAR
60.8
3rd
Bonds A. Rodriguez


WAR Runs Batting
479.4
2nd
Bonds

To be 3rd in Wins Above Replacement for a 10-year period (behind only Bonds and Alex Rodriguez) is extremely impressive, not to mention the fact that there’s an 8-win gap between Bagwell and the man in 4th place (Sammy Sosa). As I’ve said, I look at WAR as a conversation starter so I asked myself, why would Bagwell be so high? The answer is that he was a power hitter who also got on base, fielded his position well and could run. Also it should be noted that for the first half of his career, Bags played in the hitter-unfriendly Astrodome (WAR and OPS+ give credit for that and taketh away in his Minute Maid Park years with the short porch Crawford Boxes in left field).

I’ll finish with a direct career comparison between Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas, elected to the Hall of Fame two years ago.

Wordpress Table Plugin

You can see that, on balance, The Big Hurt was a slightly better hitter overall. The reason he didn’t appear in the “rank” with Bagwell’s peers from 1994-2003 is that Thomas had three of his peak years prior (from 1991 to 1993, when he won his first MVP). Still, if Thomas was a better hitter, Bagwell was a better defensive player and a much better base runner. Add the fact that Thomas started more than half of his games as a DH, I would say that it’s a coin flip to decide who was the more valuable player.

If it’s a coin flip between Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas then Jeff Bagwell is a Hall of Famer. End of conversation, except for the “whisper” (see the Piazza comment above). Honestly, other than those whispers, the only reason I could see for not putting him in is that his career ended at the age of 37 due to a bum shoulder so he couldn’t amass the benchmark 500 home runs that we usually like to see from our Hall of Fame first basemen.

In four years, Bagwell’s voting support has been fairly steady between 54% and 60%. In the history of Hall of Fame voting, anybody who gets that level of support in their early years on the ballot eventually gets in. I suspect this might be the year that Baggy makes a big leap forward, for three reasons.

1. The obvious reason is that the ballot isn’t as clogged up with no-doubt Hall of Famers as it has been in recent years.
2. Since he and Piazza are linked at the hip for PED “whispers,” if voters are pushing Piazza over the edge to make it into Cooperstown, there’s would be a natural inclination to lump them together.
3. Bagwell and Biggio are so interconnected in Astros history that it may seem to voters that it lacks harmony that one is in Cooperstown and the other is not.

Prediction: Bagwell gets a nice bump to 67% of the vote and gets into the Hall of Fame in 2017. With no new obvious first-ballot Hall of Famers coming down the pike 12 months from now, 2017 should be Raines’ and Bagwell’s year.

6. EDGAR MARTINEZ (7th year on the ballot, received 27% of the vote in 2015)

cbssports.com

• 309 home runs, 1,261 RBI
• .312 career batting average
• .418 on-base% (3rd best in last 50 years)
• 147 career OPS+ (8th best in last 30 years)
• 4th best OPS+ (159) from 1992-2001
• 7-time All-Star
• 68.3 career WAR

On the ballot for the 7th time, Edgar Martinez, a lifetime member of the Seattle Mariners, has never gained more than 36.5% of the vote so he is a long shot to make it into Cooperstown through the writers’ ballot.

A .312 career hitter with a .418 on-base%, Edgar has been tremendously undervalued: this was a pure, professional, dangerous hitter.  His distinctive batting style (in which he held his hands very high), delivered him a career 147 OPS+, which means that he was 47% better than the average hitter. That is identical to the career OPS+ of Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt, Willie McCovey, and Willie Stargell.

Martinez’s finest moment came in the fourth and fifth games of the 1995 Division Series, when he almost single-handedly lifted the Seattle Mariners (in the playoffs for the first time in their history) into the ALCS by defeating the Yankees.  Edgar hit a 3-run HR and Grand Slam in Game 4, the latter of which (off closer John Wetteland) broke a 6-6 tie in the 8th inning.  Of course, in Game 5, he hit the 11th inning double down the left field line immortalized by Ken Griffey Jr.’s amazing dash around the bases.

Like Piazza, Raines and Bagwell, Edgar had a 10-year stretch where, by a variety of measures, he was one of the very best hitters in baseball. During those best ten years (1992 to 2001), only Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Frank Thomas bested his 159 OPS+.

Edgar Martinez
 1992-2001
Rank
among all players (min 3000 PA)



Batting Average
.325
3rd
Gwynn Walker


On-Base %
.435
3rd
Bonds Thomas


OPS+
159
4th
Bonds McGwire Thomas


Doubles
376
3rd
Grace Bagwell


WAR Runs Batting
440.3
4th
Bonds Bagwell Thomas


Runs Created
1176
6th
Bonds Bagwell Thomas Palmeiro Griffey


WAR Position Players
50.4
6th
Bonds Bagwell Griffey Lofton Piazza

Taking a shorter view, a seven year span that started during the Mariners’ magical 1995 season, Edgar was arguably the best overall hitter in baseball with the lone exception of Barry Bonds.

Edgar Martinez
 1995-2001
Rank
among all players (min 3000 PA)



Batting Average
.329
2nd
Walker


On-Base %
.435
2nd
Bonds


OPS+
159
3rd
Bonds McGwire


Runs Batted in
773
10th



Doubles
291
1st



WAR Runs Batting
379.5
2nd
Bonds


Runs Created
974
3rd
Bonds Bagwell


WAR Position Players
40.6
5th
Bonds Rodriguez Bagwell Griffey

Where Edgar falls short on these charts is in the traditional power statistics of home runs and runs batted in. He was 17th in RBI from 1992-2001 and 10th from 1995-2001. Many sabermetricians will argue that RBI is an overrated statistic because it is too dependent on situations; needless to say a 4th place hitter gets more RBI opportunities than a leadoff hitter. But Martinez was a cleanup hitter more often than not.

When looking at his splits linked here on Baseball Reference, you can see that Edgar drew 57% of his career walks with men on base even though those only accounted for 48.5% of his career plate appearances.

More notable, Martinez drew 40% of his career bases on balls with runners in scoring position even though those situations only occurred in 29.5% of his plate appearances.

These type of splits are also seen with the incomparable Bonds: during Edgar’s 7-year peak of brilliance (in the table above), Bonds had only 9 more RBI than Edgar. Both men, despite playing on generally good teams with a good supporting cast, were both feared by opposing pitchers and extraordinarily disciplined hitters. Neither would swing at a bad pitch just in the effort to drive in the runners on base. Each would accept the walk if that’s all the pitcher was offering.

In all other metrics besides RBI, Edgar Martinez was simply one of the best hitters in baseball for a long period of time. To have posted the 5th best overall WAR for position players for a seven year period is remarkable for a designated hitter since WAR punishes hitters for not playing in the field.

As a potential Hall of Famer, Martinez’ candidacy suffers from two things: the DH factor and the fact that he didn’t become a full time player until the age of 27, which kept his overall numbers a little low. His 309 career home runs and 2,247 career hits are less than you would expect from a Hall of Fame hitter, although the hit total is somewhat artificially low because of his 1,283 walks.

It is a fair point that perhaps Edgar’s career was just a bit too short to merit a Cooperstown plaque. For me, his dominant peak and status as one of the hitting savants in baseball is good enough. But don’t take my word for it: look at what two of the newly inducted Hall of Famers (one a foe, one a teammate) had to say about Mr. Martinez.

“The toughest guy I faced I think — with all due respect to all the players in the league — was Edgar Martinez. He had to make me throw at least 13 fastballs above 95 (each time we faced). I was hard-breathing after that. Edgar was a guy that had the ability to foul off pitches, and it pissed me off because I couldn’t get the guy out.”

Pedro Martinez (on MLB Network Jan 6, 2015)

“Edgar Martinez is, hands down, the best hitter that I’ve ever seen. I’m glad I didn’t have to face him too much. Having seen him play from ’89 to all the way when I left, I got to see him a lot against great pitchers. Like I said, hands down, he is the best pure hitter that I got to see on a nightly basis. And I hope that his time comes soon, that he gets a phone all stating that he’s a Hall of Fame player, because he is.”

Randy Johnson (on MLB Network Jan 6, 2015)

I’ll go with Pedro and the Big Unit’s endorsements here. Edgar Martinez should be in the Hall of Fame.

Prediction: Edgar jumps from 27% to 38% of the vote in his 6th time on the ballot. He’s a long shot to gain the Hall through the the BBWAA but a good potential candidate for a future Veterans’ Committee when populated by his contemporaries.

7. MIKE MUSSINA (3rd year on ballot, received 25% of the vote in 2015)

cbssports.com

• 270 wins, 153 losses
• .638 career winning % (10th best all-time for pitchers with at least 200 wins in modern era)
• 3.68 ERA, 1.192 WHIP (walks + hits per inning)
• 123 career OPS+
• Won at least 15 games 11 times
• Nine times in Top 6 of AL Cy Young Award voting
• 5-time All-Star
• 7-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 83.0 career WAR, highest for any pitcher not in the Hall of Fame except for Roger Clemens

Mike Mussina was durable, consistent and a man of impeccable character, winning 270 career games in the rugged American League East. Of the nine starting pitchers with a career winning percentage better than Moose’s .638 mark, all but Clemens and not-yet-eligible Roy Halladay are in Cooperstown. And, whatever you think about WAR, when yours is the best in history for a non-Hall of Famer, that might mean you belong there.

The Stanford-educated Mussina retired on the top of his game after the 2008 season, at the age of 39. He won 20 games for the first and only time in his 18-year career in his final campaign. In typical under the radar fashion, Moose actually made the decision to hang up his spikes before the season began but kept it to himself, not wanting any “last season” hoopla. Of course, that decision came with a consequence: he stopped pitching just 30 wins shy of the 300-win mark, which almost certainly have punched his ticket to Cooperstown (more on this later). This is how he explained that decision:

“I have young children and they’re getting involved with things. I’ve been away a long time and I want to be involved more. I’m certainly not getting younger, they’re not getting younger and you can’t get that time back. It’s just the right time for me… I didn’t want to be one of those guys that bounces all over the place. That’s not how I feel about the game. If I can’t contribute at the level I want to contribute at, then someone else should be doing it.”

— Mike Mussina (November 20, 2008)

Besides falling shy of 300 wins, I can think of three reasons that Mussina has not gotten much support in the Hall of Fame balloting in his first two tries. The first is simply that there was an overwhelming amount of competition among starting pitchers on the last two ballots. After a 14-year run in which the BBWAA inducted only one starting pitcher, the last two cycles have seen five worthy starters gain plaques in Cooperstown (Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine). Bill James pointed out twenty years ago that most writers like to balance their ballots with a mix of pitchers and hitters in the same ratio that you might fashion if you were building a roster. So Mussina (and Curt Schilling) have languished in the shadow of their more luminous contemporaries (which includes Clemens as well).

The second reason I think Mussina has been overlooked is that, while 270 wins and a .638 winning percentage are very impressive numbers, it is also true that he had the luxury of pitching for excellent teams for most of his career. The Baltimore Orioles won an average of 85 games per season (adjusted for the strike of 1994-1995) in Mussina’s nine full years there.  In his eight seasons in New York, the Yankees averaged 97 wins per year.  So, for Mussina’s career, his teams won an average of over 90 games, which certainly boosted his win totals.  In his 537 career games (all but one which was a starting assignment), his teams scored an average of 5.4 runs per nine innings, which is 12.5% better than the league average during that time.

The third reason is that there are some writers (most likely older writers) who don’t like the fact that he only won 20 games once in his career and that he had a career ERA of 3.68, which would be the 2nd highest for any pitcher in the Hall of Fame. It is a truthful generalization that, on balance, older writers put more stock in wins and losses and younger writers look more closely at advanced metrics such as ERA+, WAR or FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).

What many people likely overlook regarding Moose’s high ERA is that he pitched his entire career in the American League East, with DH’s and many PED-using players. His ERA+ (which adjusts for ballpark effects and is relative to the overall league ERA for each year in question) is 123 and that figure is higher than 32 pitchers already in possession of Hall of Fame plaques. This list of pitchers with an ERA+ worse than Mussina’s career mark include luminaries such as Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton, Robin Roberts, Nolan Ryan and recent inductee Tom Glavine.

Regarding Mussina’s personal decision to stop short of the 300-win finish line, it should be noted that, in the history of baseball, only thirteen pitchers achieved their 300th career victory by their age 39 season. Only two of them (Maddux and Steve Carlton) managed to accomplish this in the last 80 years. Six of the thirteen pitched in the 19th century.

Moose’s 270 wins through this age 39 season are 16th best all time among pitchers who debuted in 1901 or later and better than the mark posted by 35 Hall of Fame pitchers.

Finally, to make the case for Mike Mussina, let’s take a look at Moose and a contemporary from the opposing league, Tom Glavine. Here are their career numbers side by side:

Wordpress Table Plugin

Gulp: Tom Glavine started 146 more games, tossed about 850 more innings, pitched most of his career for a perennial division champion (the Atlanta Braves), and won just 35 more games than Mike Mussina. In addition, Moose struck out more batters despite dramatically fewer innings pitched. If you look at these two side by side, it’s impossible to have a rational argument that Glavine is a Hall of Famer and that Mussina is not.

Through his age 39 season, Glavine had 275 wins, only 5 more than Mussina’s final total. Glavine got to 300 wins because he decided to pitch for three more seasons: in those seasons he won 30 games and posted a league-average 4.33 ERA. Does it make any sense that one pitcher is a Hall of Famer and the other is not based solely on three mediocre seasons in his 40’s? No, it doesn’t make sense. Both players are Hall of Famers.

Prediction: with only one other legitimate starting pitcher (Schilling) on this year’s ballot, Mussina sees a big bump, going from 25% of the vote to 46%. With no other obvious pitching candidates coming down the pike in the next several years in balloting, this is the year that begins a path that ends with Moose’s enshrinement in 2019 or 2020.

8. FRED McGRIFF (7th year on the ballot, received 13% of the vote last year)

twitter.com

• 493 career home runs
• 1,550 career runs batted in
• .284 average, .377 OBP, .509 SLG, .886 OPS
• .303, 10 HR, 37 RBI, .917 OPS in 50 post-season games (won World Series with Atlanta in 1995)
• 6 times in Top 10 MVP of voting
• 5-time All-Star
• 52.4 career WAR

I have always been a fan of Fred McGriff, but, having just written about the first seven players on this list, I’ll acknowledge that there’s a bit of a drop-off to get to the power-hitting first baseman dubbed by ESPN’s Chris Berman as the “Crime Dog,” a nickname that sticks to this day. McGriff debuted with the Toronto Blue Jays in 1986, become a part-time player in ’87 (his rookie season) and a star in 1988 at the age of 24. McGriff was the best first baseman in the AL in both ’88 and ’89 even though he was not rewarded with an All-Star berth either season. After the 1990 season, McGriff was part of one of the boldest blockbuster trades in baseball history, going along with Tony Fernandez to the San Diego Padres for Joe Carter and future Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar.

McGriff is best known for his years with the Atlanta Braves, to whom he was traded mid-season 1993. He was integral in getting Atlanta to the ’93 playoffs and a key member of their title team of 1995.

Perhaps more than any other player, the Crime Dog has been collateral damage in the Cooperstown conversations during the steroid era.  His 493 home runs just don’t look as good as they would have before the plethora of PED-fueled taters.

As I’ve done with the other candidates above, I’ll stack up McGriff’s stats during his best years against his peers:

Fred McGriff
 1987-1994
Rank
among all players (min 3000 PA)



Home Runs
262
1st



Runs Batted In
710
8th
Carter Sierra Puckett Clark Canseco Murray Bonds


Slugging %
.590
2nd
Bonds


OPS+
153
2nd
Bonds


Runs Created
860
3rd
Bonds Molitor


WAR runs batting
274.3
2nd
Bonds


WAR Position Players
36.6
10th

Wins Above Replacement is perhaps the biggest weakness of the Crime Dog’s Cooperstown resume. His career total of 52.4 is not spectacular. His ratings for fielding and base running are below par and, it’s a fair critique that he was not a great player in his 30’s. Still, at his best (in his 20’s), he was one of the best. For whatever you think of WAR, his middling 10th place ranking from 1987-1994 puts him behind Bonds, Griffey, Will Clark and six Hall of Famers. It puts him ahead of Hall of Famers Puckett and Gwynn in their primes.

Say what you will about RBI, Runs Created, OPS+ or WAR, the home run is still the signature achievement in baseball. If you’re a great home run hitter, that trumps a lot of other accumulated minutiae. A home run is the one act that guarantees that a run scores no matter what the other circumstances so, when I’m looking at a potential Hall of Famer who is a hitter, I’m going to put more stock in the long ball than anything else. This is a fifteen year view of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball:

1987-2001
Most Home Runs



Mark McGwire
580


Barry Bonds
551


Ken Griffey Jr.
460


Sammy Sosa
450


Fred McGriff
448

So, it’s The Kid, The Crime Dog and three known steroid abusers over a long period of time. That’s good enough for me to put him in Cooperstown.

McGriff deserves credit for being a premier home run threat during the steroid era without a hint of him having been a user. He’s listed on his Baseball Reference profile as 6’3” and 200 pounds and that sounds about right for his entire 19-year career. McGriff showed wiry power as a rookie in 1987 and as a 40-year old veteran in 2004.  Unlike many of his contemporary sluggers (steroid tainted or otherwise), he didn’t turn into the Incredible Hulk over the course of his career. Look at McGriff’s early in his career in Toronto and his physique as a member of the Dodgers in 2003 at age 39.

Compare these “before and afters” to Sammy Sosa, owner of 609 career home runs, first with the Chicago White Sox early in his career and then with his Incredible Hulk physique with the Cubs during the home run boom.

It’s a shame that McGriff couldn’t make it to 500 home runs because it might have made a big difference in his Hall of Fame candidacy. I haven’t heard of anybody who thinks McGriff was a PED user. Unfortunately, 493 home runs just isn’t sexy anymore.

Prediction: McGriff ticks up barely to 15% but is still nowhere close to a Hall of Fame path and will likely not get his deserved day in the Cooperstown sun.

9. JEFF KENT (3rd year on ballot, received 14% of the vote in 2015)

si.com

• 377 home runs (most all-time for 2B)
• 1,518 runs batted in (2nd most-all-time for 2B)
• 560 doubles (3rd most all-time for 2B)
• .500 slugging % (2nd most all time for 2B)
• .290 average, .356 OBP, .500 SLG, .855 OPS
• 2000 NL MVP (.334, 33 HR, 125 RBI, all career bests)
• 5-time All-Star
• 55.2 career WAR

Jeff Kent snuck up on the baseball world as a Hall of Fame caliber player. Having bounced from the Blue Jays to the Mets to the Indians, Kent was an average player at best for five seasons in the major leagues before blossoming into a star in San Francisco.

Kent debuted in the major league with Toronto in 1992, playing mostly at 3rd base while filling in for the injured Kelly Gruber. The Jays, looking to bolster their starting pitching for the stretch run, traded Kent to the New York Mets late in August for David Cone, who helped the Jays to their first World Series championship. Cone was extremely popular with Mets fans and, when Kent got off to a slow start with the bat, the boo birds really let him have it.

From August ’92 to July 1996, Kent was the Not So Amazin’s regular 2nd baseman. In ’93, his first full season as a starting player, Kent established his reputation as a good-hit, no-field infielder by hitting 21 home runs while committing 22 errors (he led all NL 2nd basemen in miscues in both ’93 and ’94). Shortly before the trading deadline in ’96, Kent was dealt to Cleveland in a four-player deal that sent Carlos Baerga to New York.

This trade was a bit of a shocker because Baerga was very popular in Cleveland and considered a rising star (having made three All-Star teams already). Baerga was 8 months younger than Kent and, prior to the 1996 season, if you asked 100 fans to pick which 2nd baseman would be a future Hall of Famer, likely 100 would have picked Baerga. However, in ’96, Baerga was having an injury-plagued mediocre season and was battling issues with his weight. He would never be the player the Mets had thought they were trading for. As for Kent, he only spent a couple of months in Cleveland, serving as a bench player for a team that was bounced out of the playoffs in the LDS.

Through that age 28 season (1996 with Cleveland), Jeff Kent’s career WAR was 10.3.

There are currently 148 position players in the Hall of Fame. Of all of them, only five had a WAR of less than 10.3 through their age 28 season (Roy Campanella, Jackie Robinson, Bill Terry, Earl Averill and Sam Rice). The first two got a late start in the bigs because of the color barrier so there are really only three of them who had such inauspicious early major league seasons as Kent did.

Most Hall of Famers announce themselves to the world early in their careers: from their first to third seasons, they look, feel and smell like future Cooperstown inductees. The late bloomers are just plain rare: since they’re not on our radar as future Hall of Famers, we sometimes fail to notice what they’ve actually accomplished until the career is over.

This is the irony: look at the list of famous teammates that Kent had in Toronto, New York and Cleveland and marvel at how improbable it was that he would be the potential future Hall of Famer.

Toronto (1992): Dave Winfield, Roberto Alomar, John Olerud, Joe Carter, Jack Morris, Jimmy Key, Dave Stieb, and David Cone.

New York (’92-’96): Eddie Murray, Bobby Bonilla, Vince Coleman, Dwight Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, John Franco

Cleveland (1996): Murray, Manny Ramirez, Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel, Orel Hershiser, Jack McDowell, Dennis Martinez.

Winfield, Alomar and Murray of course are in Cooperstown but many of those other names were looked upon as potential Hall of Famers while they playing. Jeff Kent wasn’t in the conversation as an All-Star or even a solid regular player, much less a future Cooperstown inductee.

After the ’96 season, another trade sent him to the San Francisco Giants, near his alma mater at UC Berkeley. The deal to the Giants put him into the perfect situation that turned his career around. Besides his poor fielder rep, Kent had a reputation for having a bad attitude. With the Giants, he had the perfect players’ manager in Dusty Baker, who saw a hard-nosed player and not a bad attitude player. Dusty also showed confidence in Kent by inserting him mostly into the cleanup role, putting him behind a player, Barry Bonds, who was the ideal teammate to hit behind in the lineup.

In the city by the Bay, Kent became an instant star, finishing in the top 10 of the NL MVP voting in ’97 and ’98 before winning it over his more famous teammate Bonds in 2000. For 9 straight seasons, Kent hit no less than 22 home runs and drove in no less than 93 runs (both totals which were higher than his previous career highs).

After 6 productive seasons in San Francisco (including the pennant-winning 2002 campaign), Kent signed a two-year free agent contract with the Houston Astros, moving teammate and future Hall of Famer Craig Biggio to the outfield. After two seasons in Houston, Kent spent the final four years of his career with the L.A. Dodgers, retiring at the age of 40.

So, after being a borderline starting player in the major leagues until he was 29 years old, Jeff Kent turned himself into a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate by the time he left the game 12 seasons later. At first glance, when you look at his power numbers at a key defensive position, it looks like there should be no debate whatsoever: he not only has the most home runs all-time for a 2nd baseman (377), he is WAY ahead of the man in 2nd place, all-time great Rogers Horsnby, who hit 301. Let’s look at how Kent compares more recently to the last three second sackers inducted into the Hall (Biggio, Ryne Sandberg, and Robert Alomar). All three were elected by the writers in their 2nd or 3rd times on the ballot so if we can establish that Kent is in their league, then he should de facto be a Hall of Famer. Let’s start with traditional batting statistics:

Wordpress Table Plugin

We can see that Kent dominates the power stats, Biggio dominates the “longevity” stats and Alomar is the on-base and speed king. Now let’s look at advanced metrics for both hitting and fielding plus the recognition they received.

Wordpress Table Plugin

I included the last two columns (All-Star appearances and Gold Gloves) to help explain why Kent is struggling at under 20% voting support while the other three made it into the Hall fairly easily. They all established themselves as stars early in their careers. This is the Hall of Fame and they became famous early:

• Sandberg won the NL MVP in 1984, just his third full season in the majors, his age 24 season.
• Alomar, the son of a major leaguer, made his first All-Star game at the age of 22 and was a cog on two World Championship teams before his 26th birthday.
• Biggio made his first All-Star team at 25, and of course he achieved the benchmark 3,000 hits.

It’s interesting (and very surprising) that the advanced defensive metric “WAR Runs below or above Fielding” puts 10-time Gold Glove winner Alomar into the same class of mediocrity as Kent and that Biggio was even worse. Still, while Kent’s OPS+ and WAR Batting show him to have been the superior offensive force, he wasn’t dramatically better than the others (except for the home runs) and he did not add the base-running value of all the others or the defensive value of Sandberg.

Biggio and Alomar were Kent’s peers, all within 3 years of age; the three players had significant overlap in their careers so if the former two can be considered demonstrably better overall players at the same position during the same era, it’s reasonable to question whether Kent deserves to join them in Cooperstown.

Kent’s career WAR of 55.2 is lower than the more recent inductees at the position but is better than that of seven older second sackers inducted in the past. Still, it’s significantly lower than non-Hall of Fame 2nd basemen Lou Whitaker (74.9), Bobby Grich (70.9) and Willie Randolph (65.5).

There’s also the question about whether Jeff Kent’s batting numbers (in particular his RBI stats) are in small part the result of the good fortune of having spent six seasons mostly hitting behind Barry Bonds and two more mostly behind Jeff Bagwell, two of the best on-base guys in the era.

In 1997, his first year hitting behind Barry, he had 532 runners on base for his 651 plate appearances, an average of 0.82 base runners per plate appearance. In his previous career, the combined rate was 0.65 runners per plate appearance. That’s an increase of over 25%, which contributed to a career-best 121 RBI, blowing away his previous career high of 80.

Kent, however, deserves credit for delivering on the opportunities he was presented with. Starting with his reinvention season of 1997, look at how Kent performed in several key on-base situations, compared to all plate appearances:

Jeff Kent 1997-2008
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS



All Games
.295
.365
.516
.881


Runners in Scoring Position
.307
.398
.528
.926


Bases Loaded
.383
.395
.714
1.109


Runner on 3rd Less than 2 Outs
.409
.430
.703
1.134

These numbers help explain why, from 1997-2008, Kent had the sixth most RBI of any player in baseball while posting an OPS+ of 125, a very solid number (especially for a 2nd baseman) but only 25th best in baseball overall. Kent had the good fortune of hitting in favorable circumstances but he came through in the clutch.

Finally, the bottom line is that, if you take a 10-year stretch of time (that landmark 1997 season through 2006), for all 2nd basemen with at least 3,000 plate appearances, Kent is #1 in home runs, hits, doubles, RBI, slugging, OPS, OPS+, WAR, and runs created. He was 2nd in runs scored, 2nd in on-base%, and 4th in batting average. When it comes to “WAR Runs above average,” his mark of 258.1 is better than the next three batters combined.

Say what you will about him being a mediocre fielder but this man was by far and away the dominant hitter at his position for a decade and thus, in my view, is a Hall of Fame player. If you make the argument that Mike Piazza should be in the Hall of Fame for being the best power hitting catcher of all time, then Jeff Kent should be in the Hall as the best power hitting 2nd baseman of all time.

Prediction: most writers still hold his defense against him and he holds steady at 14% of the vote.

10, JIM EDMONDS (first year on the ballot)

usatoday.com

• 393 home runs (8th best all time for CF)
• 1,199 runs batted in
• .284 AVG, .376 OBP, .527 SLG, .903 OPS
• 4-time All-Star
• 8-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Led league in assists as CF 4 times
• 60.3 career WAR

OK, this last one is a bit of a flier. I had to put somebody 10th (well, I didn’t have to but I wanted to) and I chose Jim Edmonds. I think they’re at least 15 Hall of Famers on this ballot and you can’t vote for more than 10, so I had to leave five players out of my Top 10. It was a virtual three-sided coin flip for me between Edmonds, Alan Trammell, and Gary Sheffield and I chose Jimmy Baseball because I feel that he was under-appreciated as a hitter and is in danger of falling off the Hall of Fame ballot in his first try.

I wrote an extensive piece on Edmonds, Sheffield and Larry Walker, which you can link to here, so in this space I’ll share just one or two bits. Edmonds was a highlight reel center fielder, responsible for spectacular diving catches. I think a lot of people missed how good he was at the plate. Edmonds had an eleven-year peak in which, at least according to WAR, he was one of the five best position players in baseball. Look at the top 20 and the names of the luminaries behind Edmonds on the list (I’ve highlighted the players currently on the Hall of Fame ballot):

Wordpress Table Plugin

Most of these charts are tailored towards the best years of the player being showcased so there are circumstances where a superior player will appear lower on the this than their true worth simply because the list omits some of that player’s best years. Obviously, Ken Griffey Jr. is not the 18th best player on this list: by choosing the years 1995-2005, Junior’s brilliant first six seasons are omitted. Kent, as we’ve documented, was not a Hall of Fame caliber player until 1997. Biggio and Edgar were nearing the end of their careers.

Still, for 11 years, Jim Edmonds is 5th best by a well-respected metric that evaluates the totality of a player’s contribution to his team’s winning or losing. Edmonds doesn’t get much value at all from base running and his defensive metrics, while excellent, are not super-sized. He was a very, very good hitter and the only reason his career totals are not in the typical Cooperstown wheelhouse are because injuries limited his career plate appearances to under 8,000.

To finish, I’ll show a comparison not shown in the other piece, that of Jim Edmonds against the last center fielder to be elected to the Hall of Fame, the late Kirby Puckett.

Wordpress Table Plugin

Puckett, who debuted in 1984, had to retire before the 1996 season (at the age of 36) because of glaucoma. He had just completed his 10th consecutive All-Star campaign and was still performing at a high level so it’s not unfair to project greater career numbers when comparing him to Edmonds.  The fact that Puckett sailed into Cooperstown on the first ballot and that Edmonds will likely be drummed off the ballot in one year doesn’t seem just somehow. Puckett, while an excellent player, was perhaps a bit overrated because people clung to his .318 career batting average and the fact that he got 200+ hits five times. Today, we know that a walk is almost as good as a hit and that on-base% is more significant than batting average but the writers in 2001 weren’t voting on that basis. With all the All-Star appearances and two World Series titles, Puckett just felt like a Hall of Fame player.

I’m not saying Puckett was not a Hall of Famer, just that Edmonds at least deserves a long look if Kirby was worthy of first ballot induction.

Prediction: Edmonds gets under 5% of the vote and will have to hope for some future version of the Veterans’ Committee to see how good he really was.

 

Well, those are my ten players. As I indicated, I think they’re at least five others who deserve to make it in. If that seems like a lot, consider that the writers have been limited to 10 names for decades. At the same time, baseball has expanded from 16 teams in 1959 to 30 teams today. It’s logical then that the modern era should have nearly double the number of Hall of Famers as prior eras. The reality is that the Hall of Fame is populated by more players from the 16-team, pre-integration era than it does from the last 68 years.

For yucks, I’ll list the rest of the players in order that I think deserve at least a sniff at the Hall.

11. Alan Trammell

12. Gary Sheffield

13. Trevor Hoffman

14. Barry Bonds

15. Roger Clemens

16. Larry Walker

17. Billy Wagner

18. Lee Smith

19. Mark McGwire

20. Sammy Sosa

21. Nomar Garciaparra

22. Jason Kendall

23. Troy Glaus

Alan Trammell should be in the Hall of Fame but he’s not going to be, at least not through the writers. He has been suffering from the same problem as Raines, but to a greater degree. Trammell had the misfortune of being a contemporary of not just one all time great but two, Cal Ripken Jr. and Ozzie Smith. You can make an argument that that Cal and Ozzie were the 2nd and 3rd best shortstops in history. So Trammell played 2nd fiddle offensively to RIpken and 3rd fiddle defensively to both.

This is his 15th and final year on the ballot (future candidates will be limited to ten tries). In the first 14 votes, Trammell has maxed out at 37% of the ballot and received just 25% a year ago. Many of Trammell’s career numbers are remarkably similar to another near-contemporary Barry Larkin’s but, for whatever reason, the BBWAA members haven’t seen it.  My guess is that he’ll bump up to nearly 35% in what for some writers will be a “protest vote” but, if I had a vote, I’d rather use it to try to keep alive the future chances of Jim Edmonds.

The issues for Bonds, Clemens, McGwire and Sosa are well known. Personally, I would put Bonds and Clemens in the Hall (not Big Mac or Sammy) but they’re not getting in so a vote for them is technically a vote against somebody else.

I discussed Sheffield and Walker at length in the this accompanying piece.  I think Sheffield should (and ultimately might) make it to Cooperstown. Walker I think falls a bit short: his career statistics were too heavily skewed by his years at Coors Field. Still, I’m not certain about this. Hall of Fame writer Peter Gammons, a former colleague of mine at ESPN, had an interesting comment on MLB Network Monday that he often second guesses himself after mailing in his ballot after he hears the opinions of others that he respects. He made the point that Walker’s career rate stats on the road were actually better than Griffey’s. This is true but remember, Griffey played much longer and we all would acknowledge that his Cincinnati years are not the ones that are putting him into Cooperstown. True or not, the spread between home and road stats for Walker was 200 points for OPS; for Griffey it was 100. Huge difference.

On my ballot, I’ve listed three of the five all-time leaders in saves on this list at #13, #17 and #18. The roles of relief pitchers continue to evolve and, since they are on the field considerably less than any position players, I feel that they’re just not in the same league as those players. I’ve done a full analysis of the three closers, which you can link to here. Ultimately, I think Hoffman should be in the Hall of Fame, Smith probably not and Wagner a maybe based on the added value of historical perspective that will be revealed many years hence.

If you’re surprised to see Nomar, Kendall and Glaus on the list, I’ve listed them because, though they fall shy of modern Hall of Fame standards, they all had better overall careers than early 20th century players who are already in the hallowed Hall.

So it’s Griffey for sure this year, maybe Piazza and hopefully Raines and Bagwell in 2017.

If you’re still awake, thanks for reading!

Chris Bodig