Congratulations to Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Piazza, who today were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum and will have their plaques revealed during their induction ceremony this summer in Cooperstown, New York. In order to be elected to the Hall, a candidate must supported by at least 75% of the voters from the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).
Today’s vote was historic: with 99.3% of the vote, Griffey received the highest percentage of the vote in the history of the process, higher than Hank Aaron, higher than Willie Mays, and higher than Tom Seaver, who had previously had the all-time highest voting record. With a pared down voting body, a total of 440 writers cast ballots this year and Junior Griffey was named all but 3 of those ballots.
It was also historic in the selection of Piazza, the greatest hitting catcher in the history of the game but also a player that some writers have publicly said they suspected of using Performance Enhancing Drugs. Piazza was never officially linked to PED’s but the whispers were nonetheless there so this is the first time that the writers as a whole have conferred baseball’s highest honor to a player that had even the tiniest hint of suspicion of steroid use. Personally, as a New York Mets and a baseball fan, I am delighted by Piazza’s election today. It’s a signal from the writers that they’re not going to deny a Cooperstown plaque solely based on loose innuendo.
A year ago, 549 writers cast ballots but a new rule by the Hall of Fame’s Board of Directors trimmed the voting body down to 440. In the past, BBWAA members could vote forever but the new requirement is that the writers need to be actively covering the sport with just a 10-year grace period instead of a “forever” grace period. It’s assumed that most of the purged voters were older and perhaps more conservative and this may have very well worked to Piazza’s benefit. His vote total jumped from 69.9% a year ago to 83.0% today, easily clearing the 75% threshold.
Here’s a rundown of the voting totals, including the vote percentage increase or decrease from the previous year for the players who were also on last year’s ballot:
| Player | % of vote | +/- from 2015 | Player | % of vote | +/- from 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Griffey Jr. | 99.3% | NA | Lee Smith | 34.1% | +3.9% | |
| Mike Piazza | 83.0% | +13.1% | Fred McGriff | 20.9% | +8.0% | |
| Jeff Bagwell | 71.6% | +15.9% | Jeff Kent | 16.6% | +4.8% | |
| Tim Raines | 69.8% | +14.8% | Larry Walker | 15.5% | +3.7% | |
| Trevor Hoffman | 67.3% | NA | Mark McGwire | 12.3% | +2.3% | |
| Curt Schilling | 52.3% | +13.2% | Gary Sheffield | 11.6% | -0.1% | |
| Roger Clemens | 45.2% | +7.7% | Billy Wagner | 10.5% | NA | |
| Barry Bonds | 44.3% | +7.5% | Sammy Sosa | 7.5% | +0.9% | |
| Edgar Martinez | 43.4% | +16.4% | Jim Edmonds | 2.5% | NA | |
| Mike Mussina | 43.0% | +18.4% | N. Garciaparra | 1.8% | -3.7% | |
| Alan Trammell | 40.9% | +15.8% |
Some thoughts on the results:
The first thing that jumps out when looking at this list is how virtually every player who was previously on the ballot jumped significantly in the voting. A full seven players (including Piazza) saw their vote totals jump by more than 13% from the previous year. It’s easy to conclude that the disappearance of over 100, likely more conservative voters was responsible for all of these jumps. But it seems to me that the real reason for all of the increases is that there was only one new first-ballot candidate (Griffey). A year ago, Randy Johnson got 97% of the vote, Pedro Martinez got 91% of the vote and John Smoltz got 83%. In addition, third-year candidate Craig Biggio made it into the Hall with 83% of the vote.
That’s four players who were taking up four spaces on between 83%-97% on each of the writers’ ballots (out of the maximum 10 for whom a writer can vote). Junior essentially replaced the Big Unit in the “near unanimous” category but that’s a lot of new available ballot space that was created by the election of the other three. A total of 1,409 votes were cast last year for Pedro, Smoltz and Biggio; that’s a whole lot of slots that a writer could fill this year with other players.
As someone who feels that the players of the 1980’s and 1990’s are severely underrepresented in Cooperstown, I look at this year’s vote bumps as an extremely positive development. I would say there’s a 95% chance than both Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines will make it into the Hall in 2017. Bagwell, also unfairly in the PED “whisper” category, will draft off Piazza’s induction this year. And Raines, in his final year on the ballot next year, will almost certainly get the extra 23 votes he needs to gain his well-deserved plaque. Among the last 17 players who have received between 70%-to-74.9% of the vote, all but one were elected one year later. So this looks really promising for Bagwell and Raines.
There’s also a decent chance that Trevor Hoffman will make it into the Hall next year. I wrote extensively about why I think he wasn’t one of the top 10 this year but he’s definitely a Hall of Famer in my mind and, with such a strong showing at 67%, he’ll make it in by 2018 at the latest.
I can’t write about a Hall of Fame vote without commenting on the elephants in the room, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. A lot of commentators speculated that the purge of older voters would be a boon to the candidacies of the steroid-tainted pair but their voting increase was minimal and not remotely indicative of a trend that will end with a 75% thumbs up from the writers. Everyone voting on Barry on Roger is voting on one issue only: whether to honor them with a Cooperstown plaque in spite of their PED use or to deny it to them because of it. There’s no question whatsoever about whether they were Hall of Fame caliber players. That answer is obvious, they were two of the greatest players in the history of the sport.
So the vote on Bonds and Clemens is simply a referendum on the degree of punishment for their misdeeds. A collectively younger and slightly more forgiving voting body may have given them a 7%-to-8% bump this year, but that’s a one-time event. 241 voters declined to check the box next to the name of the all-time home run leader; 245 voters chose not to check the box next to the name of a 354-game winner.
With the current voting body of 440, a whopping 131 would have to change their minds on Bonds and 135 would have to change their minds on Clemens. That’s more than half who said “no” who would have to change their minds. Although, in the history of Hall of Fame balloting, that level of vote switching has happened many times, this situation is entirely different and unique. As I’ve written before, it’s like the abortion debate: you either believe it’s murder or it’s a woman’s right to control her own body. You’re not going to see a massive sea change on the poster boys of the steroid era.
I was pleased to see that Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and Edgar Martinez all saw double-digit increases in their voting support. I think Schill and Moose will almost definitely make it into the Hall in the next few years (there are no starting pitchers coming onto the ballot soon to steal there thunder). As for Edgar, I think he’ll probably fall short, hurt by the DH factor a relatively brief career which doesn’t contain the “counting” stats you normally want from a hitter. Hopefully Griffey will join the chorus of contemporaries stumping for this exceptional hitter.
Some quick thoughts on a few others:
- In his last try on the ballot, Alan Trammell had a great final-year bump, which will likely give him a second chance on the Veterans’ Committee in 3 years.
- Lee Smith will be on the ballot for the last time next yea and will not make it to the Hall of Fame: he suffers in comparison to Hoffman, Billy Wagner and of course Mariano Rivera (eligible in 2019).
- Fred McGriff, one of the most prolific non-tainted home run hitters of his era, remains stuck near the bottom of the ballot. He had a nice increase but he’s only got three years left and has virtually no chance to make the Hall through the BBWAA. That’s a shame. I think he will be an excellent candidate for a future Veterans’ Committee.
- Jeff Kent was on the ballot for the third time and also saw modest increase from 2015. He’s got many more years of eligibility and, as the all-time leading home run hitter among second basemen, I think he has a decent chance multiple years down the road to make it into the Hall with the writers’ vote.
- I think Larry Walker was a terrific player but a questionable candidate and obviously nearly 85% of the writers agreed.
- Mark McGwire is now off the ballot after this year and 33 writers still wasted a vote on his partner in crime (so to speak) in the 1998 home run derby, Sammy Sosa.
- I was surprised that Gary Sheffield saw no increase. However, since he was named in the Mitchell Report on steroids so it’s easy not to vote for him if you’re running up against the 10-man limit.
- I was pleased to see that Billy Wagner got 10.5% of the vote, virtually ensuring that he will get a multi-year look by the writers. I wrote extensively about him, Hoffman, and Smith in previous piece. He was a thoroughly dominant pitcher but only threw 903 career innings. I think we’ll need to see if Wagner’s superb career ERA and rate of strikeouts per nine innings look as impressive 7 to 8 years from now as they do today. There are several current closers who are posting similarly dominant numbers because of the way they are being used.
- Very sad that Jim Edmonds only got 11 votes and will now be dropped from future ballots. He was a terrific player at a key defensive position (center field) who was known for his highlight-reel catches but was an underrated hitter. Nomar Garciaparra also get cut from future consideration by getting less than 5% of the vote. He was spectacular in the late 1990’s but had a career that was just too brief.
Thanks for reading!
Chris Bodig