Trump’s VP Options (updated with new info)

TRUMP NEWT CHRISTIE

(originally published on June 22nd, now updated on July 10th with new information, in particular about Indiana Governor Mike Pence and retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn).

With the Republican national convention just over a week away, speculation is rampant about who Donald Trump will select as his running mate.

When selecting a potential vice-president, nominees usually weigh five factors:

  1. Can we trust the VP choice to do the job if something happened to the president? (the most important, by far)
  2. Can the candidate work effectively with the VP choice?
  3. Does the VP choice help “balance” the ticket by filling in some vulnerabilities of the presidential nominee?
  4. Is there a key swing state that the VP choice can turn?
  5. Can the VP choice be an effective attack dog against the nominee of the other party, allowing the presidential nominee to stay “above the fray”?

OK, let’s start by saying that #5 is completely irrelevant with Trump at the top of the ticket. What is relevant for Trump, call this #5-ALT, is whether the VP choice has the gravitas to stand up to Trump and call him out when he’s wrong (which will be often). Trump needs to select a vice-president that will reassure voters who don’t want to vote for Hillary Clinton but are skeptical of what a Trump administration would look like. To that end, this nominee would probably help his cause by announcing several cabinet appointments in advance. If, at the convention, he announces Rudy Giuliani as Secretary of Homeland Security, Chris Christie as Attorney General, Ben Carson as Secretary of Health and Human Services, he can paint the picture that his presidency will be a collaborative effort of widely known and respected people within the party.

What makes this process different than most is that virtually no public servant would turn down the VP job from a conventional nominee but this particular nominee has a toxicity about him and there are a great number of names on this list who would probably decline the offer if extended.

OK, here we go, it’s a big list (starting with the two new names that have emerged in the last week. As for the previously listed possibilities, I’ve added one or two additional comments in italics):

  • MIKE PENCEIndiana Governor Mike Pence: this is a name that just emerged in the last couple of weeks and is now considered once of the front-runners for the VP nod. The Washington Times even listed the odds at better than 95% to be Trump’s choice. Pence checks several boxes: he is popular with conservatives (Ted Cruz voters), he has both governing experience and experience in Washington (in Congress). The 57-year old Pence is planning to join Trump at a rally this Tuesday, followed by a fundraiser. Although Trump has said he preferred to announce his veep selection at the convention itself (which starts next Monday, July 18th), Pence is going to need to know if he’s the guy by the end of this week (Friday), which is the deadline for him to decide if he wants to appear on the November ballot for re-election to remain the Hoosier State’s governor. The Indiana GOP apparently is satisfied with his potential replacement, Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb. I like Pence; he’s clearly qualified to run the country. More important than what I like, the conservative “establishment” likes Pence and has tried to recruit him to run for president more than once in the last five years. If Pence is the guy, I’m not wild about it. It seems like more of a political pick than a governing pick but I can’t deny that the politics are important and if Pence’s selection satisfies the Cruz voters, that’s a plus for Trump in what he hopes will be a tight race against Secretary Clinton. For Pence, it’s a big risk. If he remains Governor of Indiana, he’ll be a top contender in 2020 in the event Trump loses. If he goes down in an epic defeat with the Trump-tanic, it could end his career in politics.
  • MIKE FLYNNRetired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn: this is a new name to the list and a surprise because Trump has indicated that he wants to select somebody with experience in government. The 57-year old Flynn, who has been advising The Donald on foreign policy matters, is likely being considered because he sees eye to eye with Trump on certain issues and has been unafraid to to speak out against the way the Obama Administration has been prosecuting the war on terror (he was the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency from 2012 to 2014). I’m mentioning his name because he’s been in the news but it would be shocking if Trump picked Flynn because he’s a registered Democrat and Trump himself has previously aligned with the other party.

And, here are the other names I wrote about a few weeks ago, with a few new tidbits:

  • NEWT GINGRICH 2Newt Gingrich: the former Speaker of the House is by far the best choice, in my opinion. In traditional ticket-balancing logic, adding a 73-year-old white man with a temper (and no ability to turn a swing state) to a ticket with a 70-year-old white man with a temper makes no sense whatsoever. But of course this is not a traditional nominee. Gingrich clearly is qualified for the top job if needed. He and Trump are also friends (he’s been an informal adviser) but has already demonstrated that he will call out the Donald’s missteps when appropriate. He did it recently by sharply criticizing Trump’s comments about the Indiana-born Judge Curiel. In a Trump administration, Gingrich would of course keep such criticisms private but it’s important that Trump has a VP with the gravitas to tell him when he’s nuts. Trump needs a consigliere, one who can advise the president and also negotiate with Congress. Newt could also bring another element that goes counter to intuition. Donald Trump is bold, brash, and brutal, calling people names, etc. But, one-on-one, most people say he is charming and really nice. Trump and Gingrich could play good cop-bad cop in negotiations but keep people guessing about who would play each role. The former Speaker, at the age of 73, has no political future and thus nothing to lose by hitching himself onto the Trump train. He is the best choice.
  • JOHN KASICH CONTEMPLATIVEOhio Governor John Kasich: he has been so emphatic about his lack of interest and that he’s not even ready to support the candidate that I can’t see any way this happens. Still, if Trump could make the sale to John Kasich that a Trump-Kasich ticket was a winning ticket, that would impress me a lot and would turn me into a voter. Kasich has the governing and Washington experience that Trump needs, he would deliver the crucial state of Ohio and he certainly can/would stand up to Trump when needed. He would be anything but a “Yes Mr. Trump” man. Kasich is 64 and may want to run again for President in 2020. I would be stunned if this happened but he would be a great choice if he accepted.
  • JEFF SESSIONSAlabama Senator Jeff Sessions: the 69-year-old Sessions, a 20-year Senate veteran, is a noted hawk on illegal immigration and, as a result, he was the first member of the United States Senate to endorse Trump. Sessions doesn’t have the national name ID that Gingrich has but he would be a ticket-balancing choice with respect to the conservative Republican base, with whom he has long been popular. Sessions has experience in both foreign policy and the judiciary (he’s the ranking GOP member of the Judiciary Committee). This would be a decent choice but probably not one that would change a lot of minds.
  • CHRIS CHRISTIE W TRUMPNew Jersey Governor Chris Christie: the failed presidential candidate would love the job and is qualified for the presidency if something were to happen to Trump but I think he would be a poor choice politically. Christie endorsed Trump shortly after he dropped his own bid for the presidency and the endorsement was widely viewed as opportunistic. The big man has earned a lot of ill will from Republican voters for his “hug” of Obama right before the 2012 election and his evisceration of Marco Rubio in the New Hampshire debate. If Trump announced Christie, a former federal prosecutor, as a potential Attorney General, I’d like that a lot, but not as the VP. I think it would hurt him more than help him.
  • BOB CORKERTennessee Senator Bob Corker: the 63-year-old Corker, the Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, was actually getting a lot of buzz a few weeks ago and met with the candidate at Trump Tower in New York but has been publicly troubled with some of the Donald’s recent inflammatory comments. Politically, this choice is essentially identical to Jeff Sessions and, since Sessions is already on the Trump train, I would be surprised if Corker got the nod.
  • Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin: the 61-year-old Fallin, who has been the Sooner state’s MARY FALLINgovernor since 2011, also served for four years in the U.S. House so she combines governing experience with Washington experience, a good combination. I don’t know much about her but she has a good resume and would have the potential to soften Trump’s negativity with women voters. Fallin is pro-life but not fanatically so. Five weeks ago, she vetoed a bill that would have imposed felony charges on doctors who perform abortions, calling it “vague and unconstitutional.” On paper, Fallin would be a good choice and I wouldn’t be shocked to see her run for President in 2020 if/when Trump loses. Although she doesn’t have much foreign policy experience, she did serve on the House Committee on Armed Services.
  • MARSHA BLACKBURNTennessee Rep Marsha Blackburn: yes, it make take you some time to tell the difference between Fallin and Blackburn. They look like they could be sisters. The 64-year-old Blackburn has served in the House for over 13 years but has not sat on any foreign-policy or military-related committees. I don’t know much about her. Like Fallin, the pick would be a ticket-balancing one. Part of my problem with the selection of either Fallin or Blackburn is that I want Trump to pick a VP who will figuratively punch him in the face if needed. For that to happen, he needs to have a prior friendship with that person and, frankly, it probably needs to be a man. As much as he “cherishes” women he doesn’t seem to have much respect for them unless they’re related to him.

And some other long shots worth mentioning:

  • ROBERT GATESRobert Gates: the Secretary of Defense for both Presidents Bush and Obama would be a coup if Trump wooed him to take the job and he accepted. In televised interviews, Gates has been critical of Trump’s foreign policy statements so it would be an important signal that the candidate is willing to listen to others if he made the offer. I’m not sure if the 72-year-old Gates needs the aggravation but this would be a game-changing selection. I really think there’s no way it would happen but Gates did indicate in a recent interview that he never says never when called to service. Gates would turn a lot of reluctant Republican voters into supporters.
  • TOM RIDGEFormer Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge: I’m fairly certain this will never happen but he’s mentioned a lot so I’ll weigh in. Ridge, also the former Secretary of Homeland Security, has exactly the kind of experience Trump needs as his VP. But the 70-year-old Ridge has said has recently as a month ago that he won’t vote for Trump. That’s pretty emphatic. Ridge, who was also on John McCain’s short list, also would cause problems with the GOP base because he’s pro-choice.
  • Senators Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz: the two young senators, Trump’s main competition in the nominating process, would be party-unifying picks for Trump but either one would be criminally insane to accept the position. Any remote chance that Rubio would accept ended today when he changed course and decided to run for re-election in the Senate. Rubio and Cruz will both probably run for President again in 2020 if/when Trump loses this fall.
  • NIKKI HALEYSouth Carolina Governor Nikki Haley: the charismatic Indian-American governor, 44 years old, has been a Trump critic and, like Rubio and Cruz, has too bright a political future to even consider jumping on the Trump train. She has become a national star in the last few years because of her response to the Charleston shooting and also her widely applauded Republican response this year to President Obama’s State of the Union Address. Haley will likely be a future presidential candidate.
  • SUSANA MARTINEZNew Mexico Governor Susanna Martinez: on paper, the 56-year-old Martinez should be just what the doctor ordered for Trump. A Mexican-American, Martinez’ presence on the ticket would be the ultimate balance to the anti-immigration positions of Trump and could also help land a few electoral votes in her home state. I haven’t seen her rule it out but Trump was inexplicably critical of the Governor during a recent visit to the Land of Enchantment, irritating many Republicans who see her as a key player in the party’s future. I can’t see this happening but thought I’d mention.
  • Ohio Senator Rob Portman: the Buckeye state senator always gets mentioned when it comes to the veepstakes because of the state he serves but he’s not interested.
  • Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown: a long shot but a Trump loyalist who endorsed him early. He’s a handsome man, younger looking than his age (56), so he would potentially help with Trump’s generation gap. He wasn’t in the Senate very long though and Trump doesn’t need another northeastern person.
  • South Carolina Senator Tim Scott: the 50-year-old Scott has served in both the House and Senate since 2010. The African-American Scott would add diversity to the Trump ticket but not a great deal of experience: like Blackburn, none of his committee experience relates to foreign policy or military issues.
  • South Dakota Senator John Thune: the 55-year-old Thune, who has served in Washington for nearly 20 years, has been mentioned as a potential VP candidate in each of the last two cycles. I haven’t seen him disavow the position but I would be stunned if he were interested or selected.
  • Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton: the youngest name on this list, he just turned 39. After one term in the House, he was elected to the Senate in November 2014. Trump recently said that Chris Christie and Cotton were “high on the list for something” if not vice-president. Cotton is an Army veteran, which will be a plus in his future political career. It’s way too soon for him to be anyone’s VP.
  • Iowa Senator Joni Ernst: the Hawkeye state’s junior Senator (turning 46 years old next month), who spent half her life in the National Guard, is the first female veteran to serve in the U.S. Senate. She’s only been in the Senate for a couple of years, however, and lacks the gravitas that is required for a Trump VP. Unlike the experienced Fallin or Blackburn, Ernst would be a female VP pick that would understandably viewed solely as a political pander by the Donald.TRUMP VP SENATORSFormer Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee: for some reason I never see his name mentioned but this would be a solid selection for Trump. He is qualified, popular with the party’s social conservative base and his good-natured and sunny disposition would provide a nice balance.
  • Former Texas Governor Rick Perry: considering that Perry declared Trump a “cancer on conservatism” early in the Republican nominating process, I can’t believe I’m even writing his name here. Still, Perry has gotten on board with the party’s nominee, he’s also popular with the conservative base and is a terrific retail politician. Also, he would not be remotely hesitant to figuratively punch Trump in the face (although he might actually punch him literally!)
  • Dr. Ben Carson: I’m only throwing the good doctor’s name in here because he’s gotten close to Trump and is actually involved in helping the Donald pick his VP. He would be an awful choice. Trump needs somebody with governmental experience and Carson has none.
  • Sarah Palin: just checking if you were still reading! Even she has said that Trump should pick somebody less controversial! But just think of the headlines!

That’s a long list but Donald Trump is any thing but conventional so it would be to nobody’s surprise if he picks somebody that no one is talking about. In my opinion the best choice is Gingrich. To summarize:

The best pick: Newt Gingrich

The safe picks: Jeff Sessions, Bob Corker, Mary Fallin

The “coup” picks: Robert Gates, John Kasich, Susanna Martinez, Nikki Haley, Tom Ridge, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio

The “no way they’ll say no” easy picks: Gingrich, Chris Christie, Scott Brown, Marsha Blackburn

Thanks for reading!

Chris Bodig

Updated: July 10, 2016 — 2:48 pm

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