The Third and Best Presidential Debate

It’s only 19 days now until our national nightmare will end and the voters will choose our next leader, who will instantly become the most intensely disliked President-elect in the history of our Republic. In what has been a truly deplorable campaign, at least the third and final presidential debate had a modicum of substance. It was the “least low” of the bottom-feeding sessions.

Here are my five takeaways from Wednesday night’s showdown:

1. Will Trump accept the election results?

A few days ago I wrote at length about Trump’s campaign theme that our political system is rigged, that the media is crooked and that the election might well be stolen if he doesn’t win. When asked if he would accept the election results and concede to his opponent if he lost, the candidate equivocated, finishing with “I will tell you at the time. I’ll keep you in suspense.” This was in direct contraction to what his running mate Mike Pence and daughter Ivanka had said in interviews in the previous two days.

This was a moment that was pounced on by the entire media establishment, both on TV and in print. CNN’s panel spent over an hour on this one topic. Pundits from both sides of the aisle called it “disqualifying.” Hillary Clinton called it “horrifying.” Fox News commentator Charles Krauthammer called it “political suicide.” Even hard-core supporter Dick Morris bemoaned his decision to say it and another devotee Laura Ingraham simply said she wished he hadn’t said it.

Personally, I don’t know how you can commit political suicide when you’re already dead. I was a bit surprised that the reaction was so severe and I felt it was overblown. Still the barrage of negativity had an impact. Trump walked the comment back at a rally this morning. After initially joking that he “would accept the results (pause) if I win,” he continued to indicate if the result was clear he would accept the outcome. Of course, that’s what he should have said during the debate but the Donald can’t help but be mischievous and not play by the rules.

2. Outside of that “suspense” moment, who won the debate?

As with the second debate, I felt overall it was a draw. During the first half hour I commented that, if I had been on a deserted island for the previous 15 months, I would have felt that Trump was a legitimate and mostly normal Republican candidate for president. After the disgusting second debate, most of this one was far more substantive. The candidates shared their differing views on the role of the Supreme Court as it relates to gun control and abortion rights, their feelings on illegal immigration and disagreements on matters of foreign policy.

Although to the keen eye it was clear (and expected) that Clinton had a greater grasp on the nuances of the issues, Trump had some facts of his own and some of them were even true. The knowledge gap was not blatantly obvious to the casual observer.

Still, if the debate was a draw (and I acknowledge there are arguments on both sides that their candidate won it), a draw was a loss for Trump. Because he is behind about 7 points in the average of polls, he needed a game-changing performance and he didn’t get it. In addition, because the media narrative afterwards was so negative (about him not being willing to commit to accept the results), it’s fair to argue that Hillary won the night. Trump’s supporters will not care what the media thinks but undecided and independent voters (the ones who don’t think the media is filled with a bunch of crooked liars) might well be swayed by the backlash.

3. Hillary goes Trump on the Donald

I’ll admit, I didn’t even think of this as it was happening, but one of Secretary Clinton’s most effective strategies in this debate was to go full Trump on the Donald. The billionaire businessman in part vanquished his Republican rivals during the primaries by labeling them, belittling them, and calling them names.

During this debate, Hillary turned the tables to great effect. She called him Putin’s “puppet,” said that he “choked” when he met with the Mexican president and didn’t ask him to pay for the wall on the border, and poked fun at him for using Chinese steel to build the Trump Tower in Las Vegas. Towards the end of the debate, as she was laying out her case for raising Social Security taxes on the wealthy, she said that her Social Security payroll contribution would go up, as would his, “assuming he can’t figure out how to get out of it.” This was clearly a reference to the reports (which Trump has not denied) that he avoided paying federal income tax for 18 years because of a $916 business loss in 1995.

Trump, clearly having had enough of Hillary’s barbs, leaned into the microphone and said “such a nasty woman.” That was not a good moment for a candidate who is having problem with female voters, especially after a week when nine of them accused him of sexual misconduct.

4. The star of the show was Chris Wallace

This debate was a great moment for moderator Chris Wallace, who hosts the Sunday morning show called Fox News Sunday (which airs originally on the Fox network, not Fox News). The 69-year old Wallace (I was surprised to learn that he’s just two weeks younger than Clinton) was superb in how he kept the debate from going off the rails. He asked tough questions of both candidates, following up with each when they were dodging and weaving. Wallace, the son of legendary CBS newsman Mike Wallace, earned universal praise from both sides of the aisle, even from hyper-partisans like Howard Dean and Keith Olbermann.

Many on the left side of the media (which is most of it) have for years referred to Fox News as “Faux News” or “not real news.” There are certain programs on the network which clearly resemble a Republican party infomercial but the network has a solid news division and many reporters who follow the network’s slogan of being “fair and balanced.” Fox News remains the most watched cable news network but has suffered from the partisan split in the Republican party caused by the Trump candidacy. If, after he loses, Trump launches the “Trump News Network” (this is widely speculated to be his endgame), you can expect some of the more partisan members of Fox’ lineup (such as Sean Hannity) to jump ship. What will remain is a solid news organization that reports on some of the stories that the other networks ignore. Wednesday night was a great night for Wallace and the network he represents.

5. How will the debate affect the down-ballot races?

I hinted at this earlier but, to me, this debate really didn’t change the trajectory of this race in any way. I really don’t see either candidate gaining or losing voters based on Wednesday’s performance. If you already felt that Trump was a loose cannon and had the wrong presidential temperament, nothing that happened would change your mind (unless, of course, you only watched the first 30 minutes). If you felt that Clinton was untrustworthy about her private email server and the Clinton Foundation, she did nothing to assuage that concern. Her worst moments were when she was dancing and deflecting about those topics.

Some commentators, after the debate, were predicting electoral doom for the GOP in the Senate and even the House, based on Trump’s public declaration that he would not necessarily accept the outcome if he lost. I disagree. You will see more ticket-splitting in this election that you have ever seen before. Between Gary Johnson, Jill Stein and (in some states) Evan McMullin, you will see 7-to-10% of the electorate vote for a third party. Those voters will be picking between R and D for the Senate and House races. Consider this. There are scores of Republican lawmakers and former government officials who have publicly stated that they are going to support Clinton because they feel that Trump is unqualified and unfit for the presidency. Those people will still vote for the GOP on the down-ballot races and disgusted voters, who would otherwise vote Republican over Hillary, will do the same.

Trump gave the Republican Senate and House candidates exactly what they needed in the opening moments of the debate, when the topic was the Supreme Court. Trump spoke the language of the right when it came to the Second Amendment and his graphic diatribe about partial birth abortion. This is red meat for the right. It will ensure that the Republicans hold the House and give them a fighting chance to hold the Senate.

There is a phrase that political scientists use about the “coattails” of the party’s presidential candidate and how it moves the balance of power on Capitol Hill. This is the strangest election cycle we’ve ever seen and I would expect that you’ll see a 5-to-10 point spread between the vote for Trump and the vote for the Republican Senate and House candidates in the individual states.

Thanks for reading.

Chris Bodig