The 7th inning and Clayton Kershaw

What a fun night for fans of the New York Mets last night, especially those of us who live in Los Angeles and had the opportunity to attend Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Dodgers.

You could not have asked for a better pitching match-up: the Dodgers’ started 3-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw (last year’s league MVP) against 2nd-year Mets ace Jacob DeGrom (last year’s Rookie of the Year). Although Kershaw is now a “grizzled” 8-year veteran and DeGrom is in his second major league season, Kershaw is actually only three months older; both pitchers are 27 years old.

For most of the game, the two aces did not disappoint; DeGrom struck out 13 Dodgers while Kershaw fanned 11 Mets. It was the first time in the history of baseball’s post-season that both starting pitchers amassed at least 11 K’s each. There was very little difference between the two outings with two major exceptions: one home run swing of the bat and….

The 7th inning.

What is it about the Clayton Kershaw and the 7th inning in postseason baseball?  More on that in a moment.

First, let’s chronicle the two key at bats for the Mets in the first six innings.  #1 was in the first inning from David Wright, the Mets’ heart and soul. The Captain missed all but 38 games this season with a degenerative back condition that may shorten what was shaping up to be a Hall of Fame career through his first 10 seasons.  Wright actually got some moral support during his months on the DL from Dodgers’ manager Don Mattingly, once a New York star himself (with the Yankees) whose career was curtailed by a similar back condition.

Anyway, you can argue that Wright set up what happened in the 7th inning by working a 12-pitch walk as the second batter of the 1st inning. Wright fouled off pitch after pitch after pitch before earning the free pass; he would be stranded at 1st base but, by making Kershaw toss 22 pitches in the opening frame, the Mets had a tired and weakened version of the Dodgers’ ace by the time the game reached the 7th.

The second key moment of course was the solo home run by 2nd baseman Daniel Murphy to lead off the 4th inning. The left-hand hitting Murphy is a solid, professional hitter but not normally a home run threat against lefties: only one of his 14 home runs this season came off southpaws. But Kershaw fell behind 2-0 in the count; Murph was sitting dead red for a fastball, got his pitch and deposited it deep into the Mets’ bullpen in right field.  The game remained 1-0 in favor of the Metropolitans until the 7th.

And now, the dreaded 7th inning, which for two years in a row has been the Waterloo for the best pitcher in baseball. And make no mistake, for the last five years, Clayton Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball by far.  He has posted a 88-33 record and a 2.11 ERA while amassing 3 Cy Young Awards (finished 2nd to R.A.Dickey in 2012). He will likely fall short to the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta or teammate Zack Greinke this year but his five-year run has been one of sustained and consistent excellence except for the postseason.  In twelve playoff appearances, Kershaw now has a 1-6 record with a 4.99 ERA.  His last five starts (spanning the 2013 NLCS against St. Louis to Game 1 against the Mets) have been especially brutal: 0-5 with a 6.44 ERA.  And, with the exception of Game 6 in 2013 when he got bombed for 7 runs in 4 innings, the damage has always been at the end of his pitching rope, the 7th inning.

Let’s recap what’s happened to the Dodgers’ ace in the 7th in his three starts over the last two years.

• Game 1 of the 2014 Division Series against St. Louis: Kershaw and the Dodgers had a 6-2 lead over the Cardinals entering the top of the 7th before the wheels came off.  Entering the 7th, Kershaw had retired 17 of the last 18 batters, the lone blemish a solo home run by another left-handed hitting 2nd baseman, Matt Carpenter.  He was sitting at 92 pitches through 6, hardly a cause for concern. But Kershaw proceeded to allow 6 hits, capped by a three-run double by Carpenter on his 110th pitch of the outing. The Cards were suddenly up 7-6, Clayton was done, Pedro Baez came in, walked a batter, and then allowed a 3-run home run to Matt Holliday, capping an eight run 7th inning and an eventual Redbirds’ victory.
• Game 4 of the same series against the Cardinals: for six innings, Kershaw had a 2-0 lead and was dominant: he had given up just one hit, walked two, and struck out nine.  He entered the 7th frame having tossed 94 pitches which, considering he was pitching on three days’ rest, was a fairly high total, too high as it turned out. In the 7th the first two batters singled and then the Cards’ huge 260-point first baseman Matt Adams deposited a 3-run line drive home run to right.  End of game for Clayton, end of the season for the Dodgers.
• Finally we come to Game 1 of the LDS against the New York Mets: through 6 innings, Kershaw had fanned 9 batters, given up the one solo home run to Murphy and allowed just 3 other hits and one walk (the 12-pitch walk by Wright in the 1st). The Dodger ace settled in after the walk and was sitting at 88 pitches. You have to wonder if Clayton was thinking about all of those 7th inning hits last year because he started off wild, walking Lucas Duda on five pitches to lead off the inning.  A ground out followed, then another walk, a sacrifice bunt by DeGrom and finally another walk (on a full count) to Curtis Granderson to load the bases for Wright.  You have to feel for Mattingly; he had burned twice the previous year by leaving his ace in for one too many batters. Perhaps also remembering how Wright had worked that 12-pitch walk in the first, the Dodgers’ skipper decided to go to the bullpen and Baez.  The Mets’ captain worked another full count before delivering the insurance runs the Amazins’ needed, a two-run single on a 99-mile-per-hour fastball.

One final note about Clayton’s three walks issued in the 7th: two of them were to left-handed batters (Duda and Granderson).  In the entire regular season, Kershaw only walked five left-handed hitters!

This 7th inning problem for Kershaw is so bizarre.  It is not a chronic problem for him: his career ERA in the 7th in the regular season is 2.39.  In the last two regular seasons, in the 7th frame, he has yielded 12 earned runs in 46.1 innings. In his last three post-season starts, he’s given up 11 earned runs in the 7th!!  In fact, look at this comparison between his first six innings and the 7th inning during his 57.2 career post-season innings:

The ERA is not a typo: it’s 36.00, not 3.60.

Compare this to the Mets’ DeGrom, who was on the post-season stage for the first time in his young career.  He entered the 7th inning last night having thrown 101 pitches.  His result: a fly ball to center and two strikeouts, his 12th and 13th of the game while still throwing blazing fastballs in the high 90’s.

It’s not like Kershaw is just a 6-to-7 inning pitcher.  The Dodgers didn’t give him $215 million for that. He’s started the 8th inning in 33% of his career regular season starts; he has 21 complete games in an era where they’re becoming extinct. But Clayton has never even seen the 8th inning in nine post-season starts.  In fact, only once has he even managed to finish the 7th inning in the playoffs.

Kershaw is starting to look like baseball’s version of Peyton Manning, the greatest regular season performer who falls a bit short in the post-season. Of course, Peyton DID get a ring with the Indianapolis Colts, against the Bears in 2007, but it was after years of disappointments.

The Dodgers’ ace lefty may still have a chance to redeem himself.  Assuming the Dodgers can salvage one of the next two games, he’ll be back on the mound on Tuesday in New York for Game 4.

Thanks for reading!

Chris Bodig