After the disappointment of losing out on the Jon Lester sweepstakes, it didn’t take Boston General Manager Ben Cherington long to turn to Plans B, C, D, acquiring three new pitchers to fill out the Red Sox’ starting rotation within 24 hours of the Lester news.
Boston, say hello to Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Justin Masterson (in the case of Masterson, we can say “welcome back”). Cherington managed to acquire three quality starting pitchers without surrendering the team’s top minor league talent and without making a long-term financial commitment. It would have been nice to have Lester back but the truth is, $155 million for 6 years is somewhat insane for a pitcher who will turn 31 next month.
But of course none of these three pitchers (or rotation holdovers Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly) are of the quality of Jon Lester. Much of the commentary about the Sox’ new hurlers is that they’re all #3 or #4 starters and that Boston will have difficulty getting back into playoff contention without acquiring a so-called “ace” as Lester was. So first, let’s look at these three new acquisitions and then ask the question whether Boston can win this year if they start the season with the current group of five starters.
Let’s start with lefty Wade Miley: he just turned 28 years old. In 2012, he was 2nd in the NL rookie of the year voting with a 16-11 record and a 3.33 ERA with Arizona. Since then his ERA has climbed to 3.55 in 2013 and 4.34 in 2014. The 4.34 is poor but there positive signs that it might be an aberration. He struck out 183 batters in just over 200 innings. A high strikeout rate is a sign of a quality pitcher. The downside, he gave up 207 hits and walked 75. If he can harness his control, he can be a #2-quality starter.
What Miley did this year, recording over 180 strikeouts in 200 innings with an ERA of over 4.25, has only been done by five other pitchers in the last five years (one of whom was A.J. Burnett, also this year). The other four (James Shields and Edwin Jackson in 2010, Ryan Dempster in 2011 and Jeff Samardzija in 2013) all had significant improvements the next year. These and other statistical gems courtesy of the greatest website ever invented, www.baseball-reference.com.
- Shields went from 5.18 in 2010 to 2.82 in 2011
- Jackson went from 4.47 in 2010 to 3.79 in 2011
- Dempster went from 4.80 in 2011 to 3.38 in 2012
- Samardzija went from 4.34 in 2012 to 3.14 in 2013
Again, high strikeout rates are an indicator of good stuff and a good bet for an improvement the next year.
Next, let’s look at righty Rick Porcello, who is de facto the pitcher the Sox received for Jon Lester (Boston received Yoenis Cespedes from Oakland on July 31st for Lester and then moved Cespedes to Detroit for Porcello). My overall thoughts about Porcello were not initially positive. He’s always been the Tigers’ 5th starter and I have fond memories of him walking off the field in dejection when he gave up the game-winning RBI single to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the classic Game 2 of the 2013 ALCS (the Ortiz grand slam game). But Porcello seemed to turn the corner this year and he is still young (will turn 26 two days after Christmas). After four years of ERA’s over 4.00, he logged a 3.43 ERA this season. He doesn’t strike out a lot of guys (which concerns me) but he’s a pure ground ball pitcher who will benefit from Dustin Pedroia’s Gold Glove on the right side of the infield.
Finally, welcome home to the 6’6”, 250 pound right-hander Justin Masterson, who had a truly awful 2014 campaign which is why Boston was able to sign him on a “flier” contract for one year and $9.5 million. If Masterson had been a free agent after the 2013 campaign (14-10, 3.45 ERA), he might well have gotten a $100 million deal. Masterson was a rookie with the Red Sox in 2008 was terrific out of the bullpen when current manager John Farrell was the pitching coach. He was dealt to the Indians at the trading deadline in 2009 for Victor Martinez. Masterson battled injuries in 2014 and had a miserable 5.88 ERA in 128 innings split between Cleveland and St. Louis. He’s still relatively young (will turn 30 in March) so it’s worth a shot if he can reclaim his good form.
So all three acquisitions could be really good, or they could be mediocre. But let’s remember that the Red Sox entered the 2013 championship season with similar questions. Let’s look at the 2013 Opening Day rotation with their statistics from the previous season.
Pitcher 2012 statistics
- Jon Lester 9-14, 4.82 ERA, 1.383 WHIP (walks + hits per 9 IP)
- Clay Buchholz 11-8, 4.56 ERA, 1.326 WHIP
- John Lackey Did not pitch: Tommy John surgery
- Ryan Dempster 12-8, 3.38 ERA, 1.305 WHIP (with Cubs and Rangers)
- Felix Doubront 11-10, 4.86 ERA, 1.447 WHIP
That didn’t look very promising did it? The Red Sox did not enter the 2013 season with a true “ace” starting pitcher. But what happened is that, for almost the whole year, they had an “ace of the moment.” Buchholz got off to an unbelievable start, going 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his first 12 outings through June 8th. Then he got hurt, went on the disabled list, and only toed the rubber for 8 more games (including a middling post-season performance).
Next up in the “ace of the moment” rotation: veteran John Lackey. In 7 starts from June 10th to July 12th, he went 4-1 with a solid 2.77 ERA.
From July 13th through August 18th, the Sox slumped, winning only 15 of 31 games. None of the starters delivered the goods with any consistency. The team had just lost two out of three at Fenway to the Yankees, two out of three in Toronto, and three out of four in Kansas City. With seven losses in nine games, the Sox headed to the West Coast to meet the defending champion San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Boston started the trip with a 7-0 win over the Giants, backed by 8 1/3 innings of shutout ball by Lester and the team went 24-12 down the stretch to coast to the AL East crown. Lester finally became the “ace of the moment,” going 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his final regular season starts and of course was the pitching hero of October, going 4-1 with a spectacular 1.56 ERA.
While Lester was leading the starting rotation, Koji Uehara became Mr. Automatic as the closer and Shane Victorino went on a tear, not coincidentally after abandoning batting from his weaker left-handed side: he hit .336, with 8 HR, 24 RBI and a 1.025 OPS in his final 30 games.
The point of this history lesson is this: it would be nice to have a “quote-unquote” ace to head the 2015 rotation but as Cherington noted the other day:
“The question is how do you get them and where do they come from? If you’re looking at baseball 2014, the top 10-15 starting pitchers in baseball, there’s a bunch of them that two years ago would not have been on that list.”
The Red Sox could trade for the Phillies’ Cole Hamels, a legitimate ace starter but it will cost them several top prospects. Cherington should only make a deal with Philadelphia if the price is right.
He could sign James Shields, the 2nd best free agent pitcher left on the market, but there’s no guarantee there. Some chinks in his “Big Game” nickname were clearly revealed with a mediocre postseason performance. There’s another lesson: the Royals managed to make it to Game 7 of the World Series despite a 0-2 record and 7.00 ERA by their ace. There are a lot of ways to skin a cat, there are a lot of ways to win (the Royals did it with timely hitting, speed and a bullpen with three Mariano Rivera clones).
The American League East does not look strong right now. If you look at the rotations for the other five teams, none of them inspire comparisons to the 1970’s Orioles or the 1990’s Braves. All have question marks. And, of the other four teams, only the Blue Jays have improved their offense to the degree that the Red Sox have thus far this off-season.
So, if you’re a Red Sox fan, be really happy that the team acquired three solid starting pitchers this week and they acquired them without giving up the crème de la crème of their farm system or any major league players they were counting on for 2015. It’s a great start to the Hot Stove season and a good reason to feel optimistic for the next season.