Donald Trump is running to be the President of the United States. This is reality TV at is best, or maybe at its worst. The real estate billionaire and host of “The Celebrity Apprentice” is not just running for president, he is currently the front-runner by a significant margin, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. So there are three questions that I think need to be answered:
1. Can he actually win the nomination?
2. What impact will he have in the first debate?
3. What is the possibility that he might run for president as a third-party candidate?
I’ll start with #1, can he win the nomination? My answer, as a long-time observer of politics, is an emphatic “No.” It is not surprising at all that he is currently leading in the national polls right now. He is far and away the most famous of the candidates and is devouring the lion’s share of media attention. It’s not that simple of course: Trump is appealing to a lot of intelligent conservatives because he is unfiltered; his message isn’t poll-tested. He talks about how “China is ripping us off” and how “Mexico is not our friend” and how the “politicians can’t get anything done” and many Republicans (including this one sometimes) are nodding in agreement. He’s also dominating the polls because there are 15 other candidates splitting the “anti-Trump” vote. It’s my personal belief that his bombastic style is not really what you want from our president and will not be supporting him but I do like a lot of what he says even if the way he says it makes you cringe.
Leading the national polls in July is nice but it’s not a guaranteed path to the nomination when there are so many other viable contenders. The voters in the first two caucus and primary states (Iowa and New Hampshire) will have dozens of opportunities to meet the others in person. It’s hard to imagine Trump jetting from county to county in Iowa into the living rooms of the voters, but that’s what the voters in that state expect and demand. Assuming that the process of fund-raising and debate performances whittle the field of 16 candidates to about 7 to 10, there will be a big split in the early voting states.
This is important to know: according to the current RNC plan, the early states and all states that vote before March 14th will award their delegates on a proportional basis. During the months of January through March, candidates that consistently finish outside of the top 3 or 4 will see their fund-raising dry up and will leave the race. So the field that is currently so crowded will shrink to about 3 to 4 candidates in short order. Once THAT happens, those who supported the vanquished candidates will gravitate to those left standing. The proportional allocation of delegates (instead of “winner take all” as the general election will be) will make it impossible for any one candidate to wipe out the field in the first few weeks.
It’s my belief that the vast majority of Trump supporters are already supporting him and it’s the OTHER candidates (the anti-Trumps) who will surge. This is not just a supposition, it’s backed by the fact that Trump leads all candidates in “unfavorable” ratings in the polls. People like him or they don’t but more importantly, they all KNOW him. As the campaign season unfolds and the debates are held, the voters will get to know the other candidates better and, when given a choice between Trump and a handful of other traditional candidates, the others will reap the benefit.
Maybe you noticed that I haven’t even mentioned the most common supposition about Trump not having a realistic chance: that he’ll implode by putting his foot in his mouth. That may still be true, but he’s already done that and it hasn’t hurt him so far. His deplorable and offensive comments about Mexico sending us “murderers and rapists” didn’t hurt his support. It remains to be seen whether his recent comment that John McCain was “not a war hero” because he likes “people who weren’t captured” will hurt his poll numbers but there’s no indication so far that it has.
Finally, there’s one other factor that could torpedo Trump in the unlikely event that he’s still leading in the polls as the caucuses and primaries approach. It is very likely that Super PAC’s supporting either Republican party in general or Jeb Bush in particular will launch a flurry of negative ads in the early voting states. Trump has been on TV so much over the years that it would be simple for an ad-writer to use his own words against him. Just citing two examples: there are sound bites from past years where Trump supports abortion rights and expresses admiration for Hillary Clinton. These snippets will NOT play well in Iowa or many of the southern states voting on Super Tuesday (March 1st). However, this is a risky strategy however for reasons I’ll share at the end of this article.
So how will Trump-mania impact the rest of the field and specifically the first debate, which will take place in two weeks? First of all, it will be a boon for Fox News, which is televising the debate, because Trump’s presence will drive the ratings through the roof. One of the key factors about the debate regarding the crowded field of sixteen candidates (I’ve offered some quick thoughts on all 16 in this post a few days ago) is that FOX decided to only include the top ten candidates on the stage, chosen from a blended average of recent polls. FOX will also host a “candidate forum” with the other six candidates prior to the debate. Because Trump’s presence on the main stage will results in massively higher ratings than the “kiddie table” forum, the six candidates who miss the cut will be disadvantaged compared to other nine who make it because they’ll lose that prime-time opportunity to be seen.
I think there are two people who have the best chance to elevate their stature because of The Donald’s presence: Rick Perry and Chris Christie. First of all, let’s mention that Perry and Christie are both “on the bubble” and may not even make the main debate. But assuming they do, here’s why I think they may get a boost. Perry in particular has been the most vociferous in denouncing Trump (Perry has called him a “cancer on conservatism.”) Remember, the former Texas governor was leading in the polls at this time four years ago but torpedoed his candidacy with poor debate performances that revealed that he wasn’t prepared. This version of Rick Perry is much, much better and, although he’s still a long-shot, if he out-shines Trump on the stage (or at the very least appears to be the adult in the room), he may get a bump and a 2nd look from those who liked him before.
As for Christie, I’m reaching here, but if he makes the stage with Trump, it may remind voters that the brash, bombastic style of The Donald is what they liked about him before. If he matches Trump’s bluster but appears to have a firmer grasp on the issues, he may benefit. Remember, the source of Trump’s popularity is the power of his own personality (“I’ll get the jobs back from China, I would have gotten a better deal from Iran.”) Christie’s personality was the source of his power as well.
OK, let’s get to the final question, which is whether Trump might run for president as a third-party candidate. He has already been asked this question because he certainly has the personal wealth to do it if he wants. Up to now, Trump’s position is that he’s running as a Republican and is leading in the polls (basically saying it’s a moot point) but has not ruled it out. But he’s also said that if the Republican party is “not fair” to him during the primary process that the possibility of a third-party run would “absolutely” increase. The threat is clear and he possesses an enormous amount of power: “play nice or I’ll bury you” (my words). If he actually DID run as a third-party, he would be giving Hillary Clinton the same gift that Ross Perot gave her husband in 1992 when he ran as a third-party candidate, splitting the Republican vote with President Bush which allowed Bill Clinton to ascend to the Oval Office despite gaining just 43% of the popular vote.
The recent Post/ABC News poll actually posed the question of a three-way race and the results were predictable: Hillary with 46%, Jeb Bush with 30% and Trump with 20%. This is why I indicated that a Super PAC negative barrage of ads against Trump could be a risky proposition. Would he run as a third-party candidate out of spite? It seems unlikely, but he is not predictable.
Today on “Special Report” on FOX, George Will asked Marco Rubio an interesting question, whether he thought all ten candidates on the debate stage would “pledge” to support the eventual nominee no matter who it may be. I guarantee you the debate producers took note of that. I would imagine that all ten candidates will be asked for a “yes” or “no” answer to that question and it will be curious to see what Trump says. If he doesn’t say “yes,” that he would support the eventual nominee, a lot of voters may decide to say: “Mr. Trump, You’re Fired.”
It’s my personal view that he’s not helping this process. While I don’t subscribe to the theory that the media would like us to believe, that he’s hurting the entire brand of the Republican party, he is making it difficult for many of these other excellent candidates to get their messages out. But it’s still very early and, with the debates are starting soon, Trump will either become a more serious candidate or he will start to wear out his welcome. I think the latter is much more likely.
But one way or the other, Donald Trump’s presence in the Republican presidential derby is certainly not boring!
Thanks for reading!